Giovanni Santostasi
Resolved (3)
- ✗
The power law floor for Bitcoin will be close to $150,000 next year (i.e., ~2027).
“And if you do then a diagram of a price based on hash rate, you get that floor. That floor comes from this other power law. So we're supposed to be at 120. Where are we supposed to be, let's say, next year? Do you know? I think we close to almost like 150.”
BTC fell to $57,718 in [2026-05-12..2026-07-01], below the $150,000 floor.
- ✗
Bitcoin's cycle peak is estimated to be around $200,000 and is supposed to occur in November 2025 (stated by Santostasi in his own Medium write-up).
“This peak is estimated to be around $200,000 and it is supposed to occur in November 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-11-30 horizon; never reached $200,000.
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Bitcoin Power Law model (Santostasi's) predicts BTC will reach $218,875 at its cycle peak in November 2025, before descending to $96,677 at its bottom in December 2026.
“The model predicts that Bitcoin will reach $218,875 at its cycle peak in November 2025, before descending to $96,677 at its bottom in December 2026. ... The man behind the model – Giovanni Santostasi – is a former physics professor, who believes Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory follows a 'power law' relationship with time.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-11-30 horizon; never reached $218,875.
Open (7)
- ⏳
The Bitcoin price bottom will occur in August (possibly as a continuation of the current bottom).
“Yes, the bottom is in August. But it could be a continuation of this bottom.”
Bottom-in-August call made 2026-06-15; August 2026 window has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30).
- ⏳
By the end of 2026, Giovanni expects BTC prices to reach $120,000 per token.
“By the end of 2026, Giovanni expects BTC prices to reach $120,000 per token.”
Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Next year (2027), Santostasi thinks Bitcoin prices are likely to reach $150,000 per token.
“Next year, he thinks Bitcoin prices are likely to reach $150,000 per token.”
Not reached yet (high $81,650 since 2026-05-15); 2027-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will reach roughly $10 million per coin in about twenty years (i.e., ~2046), per Santostasi's power law.
“Santostasi argues Bitcoin's historical data indicates roughly $1 million per coin in approximately eight years ... His model suggests $10 million per coin in roughly twenty years. ... 'With bitcoin we found a similar relationship where the price is proportional to the time ... that power is 5.8.'”
Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-13); 2046-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
The Bitcoin power law predicts Bitcoin will reach close to $1 million in approximately eight years (by ~2034), with ~90% confidence.
“this is what the power law predicts, that Bitcoin will be close to a million dollars in eight years. But you see, that is almost half of all the age of Bitcoin”
Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-12); 2034-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
The Bitcoin power law predicts Bitcoin will reach $10 million in approximately 20 years (by ~2046).
“By 20 years, that is when actually Bitcoin will be $10 million if we continue to follow the power law in 20 years. That is the prediction.”
Not reached yet (high $82,066 since 2026-05-12); 2046-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will reach roughly $1 million per coin in about eight years (i.e., ~2034); Santostasi assigns ~90% probability. Corroborated by his own Medium article stating 'it will take about 10 years to reach 1 million BTC.'
“it will take about 10 years to reach 1 million BTC”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-03-20); 2034-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.