Gareth Soloway
Resolved (13)
- ◐
After breakdown confirmed: first support $65,700 (expect a bounce), then accumulate from $60,000; next downside target $50,000 if $60,000 fails; worst-case $35,000-$40,000 based on a head-and-shoulders measured move on the weekly chart. Intra-bear-market rally, not a new bull run.
“The head and shoulders formation on the weekly chart provides the mathematical basis for the $35,000 target.”
Breakdown confirmed and BTC fell below $60K (low $58,000), but did not reach the $50,000 or worst-case $35-40K measured-move targets.
- ◐
Bitcoin's $80,000-$85,000 consolidation is a bear flag; unless it clears $85,000, the next downside target is $50,000 (a drop of roughly 38%). Neutral-to-bearish on a directional basis near-term.
“his next downside target is $50,000, a drop of roughly 38%.”
BTC failed to clear $85K (high $82,814) and fell as predicted, but bottomed at $58,000 — never reaching the $50,000 downside target.
- ✓
Short-term bullish: once Bitcoin breaks through $74,000 support, the upside move takes it to $80,000 to $85,000 (short-term, not a midterm/cycle bull call).
“Once we break through $74,000, the upside move takes you to $80,000 to $85,000.”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-03-15..2026-07-01], reaching the $80,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin could snap back to $80k–$85k based on an intact daily bull flag pattern.
“Crypto surging. Bull flag on BTC daily still intact, alts potentially squeezing. While it isn't the start of a new bull market imo, snap back to 80k, maybe 85k is possible on Bitcoin. Charts are charts, all about probability, I have been alerting.”
BTC snapped back into the $80-85K band — high since made was $82,814 from a $67,993 spot.
- ✓
Bitcoin's micro bull flag points to upside in the $80,000–$85,000 range.
“Bitcoin showing signs of life as it pushes higher. Micro bull flag continues to try and play out. If it does, upside between $80,000-$85,000 is likely.”
BTC reached the $80,000-$85,000 range — high since made $82,814 from a $68,812 spot.
- ✓
Bitcoin's near-term chart is bullish with potential upside near $100K in January.
“Bitcoin still has a bullish near-term chart, potential upside near $100K in January. Interesting if tax loss selling is keeping it down into yr end.”
BTC traded as high as $97,964 in [2025-12-30..2026-01-31], reaching the $100,000 target (within 2.0% — near-miss counted).
- ✓
After nearly tagging 80k, Bitcoin is likely to bounce near-term.
“Bitcoin nearly tagged 80k. A bounce near-term is likely. Stocks are trying to gain traction, but many investors will be skeptical on holding into the weekend, especially ahead of a short trading week.”
After nearly tagging $80K (spot $85,069), BTC bounced near-term to a high of $97,964.
- ✓
Bitcoin will bounce but is ultimately headed down to $73k-$75k.
“Markets on shaky ground as de-risking continues. Like past cycles in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin topped 4-6 weeks prior to the S&P. This is psychological as it naturally begins in the higher risk assets. I expect a bounce in BTC, but ultimately $73k-$75k.”
BTC bounced (high $97,964) and then fell through the $73-75K target on its way to $58,000 — both elements realized.
- ✓
Bitcoin could reach $107,000 or $108,000, igniting the bulls to the maximum, before a pullback to about $74,000-$75,000 in 2025 (roughly a 30% drawdown).
“US$107,000 or US$108,000 ... would ignite the bulls to the maximum ... let's say, we could pull back to US$75,000 next year”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-12-05..2025-12-31], reaching the $108,000 target.
- ✓
After topping near $107K-$108K, Bitcoin will pull back to about $74,000-$75,000 next year (2025), a ~30% drawdown.
“let's say, we could pull back to US$75,000 next year”
BTC pulled back into the $74-75K zone in 2025 — low by the 2025-12-31 deadline was $74,421, matching the ~30% drawdown call.
- ✗
If we saw a 50% drop in the stock market, I do see bitcoin retesting that $15,000 level.
“If we saw a 50% drop in the stock market, I do see bitcoin retesting that $15,000 level”
No 50% stock crash occurred and BTC never retested $15,000 (low since made $41,618); the predicted retest did not happen.
- ✗
If stock markets had a significant downturn / panic, Bitcoin could dip toward the $15,000 bracket; near-term he saw resistance around $47,000 and warned upside may be capped pending ETF approval (expected by year-end or early 2024).
“You'll probably get [an ETF] approval by year-end or early in 2024. If bitcoin is still up here, you may not go higher.”
BTC was not capped near $47K; it rallied hard post-ETF to a high of $126,296 and never dipped to the $15K bracket (low $33,400).
- ◐
BTC, having broken its $65K top, will break $20K support and head down to the $12,000 region and lower; he announced his beginning hodl position at $19K and will add increments as bitcoin falls toward $12K (with a 3-6 week bounce to $25K-$30K expected first).
“at $19k I announced I started my beginning hodl position, and so...I will add increments to it as bitcoin falls further towards 12k.”
BTC did break $20K to a low of $15,460 (and the $25-30K bounce occurred), but never reached the core $12,000 target.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Soloway warns that if Bitcoin breaks the lower band of its parallel channel, the macro pattern targets $60K then $50K.
“#Bitcoin tags lower band of parallel channel. This is a big test for bulls vs. bears. It breaks, the macro pattern begins to play out toward $60K, then $50K. Can the bulls hold the line?”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-05-28); 2027-02-28 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.