Fred Krueger
Resolved (4)
- ✗
The Bitcoin bear market is over and the bull market has resumed.
“The bear market has been canceled. We now resume the Bull market. Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
No bull resumption — after the 2026-06-14 call at $65,707, BTC peaked at only $67,264 then fell to $58,161 (~11% down).
- ✗
In a scenario titled 'The Final Run / The Last Rally', Krueger forecast Bitcoin rising from about $150,000 to $600,000 within 90 days starting July 21, 2025 (i.e. roughly $600K by October 2025), driven by a U.S. Treasury auction failure, BRICS adoption, and a 'New Bretton Woods' dollar restructuring; he assigned the broad scenario a high probability.
“from $150,000 to $600,000 within 90 days, starting July 21, 2025”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-10-19 horizon; never reached $600,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by the end of 2024 (extrapolating from Bitcoin spot-ETF inflow trends and the power law model).
“Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by the end of 2024 and $600,000 by the end of 2025.”
BTC's high was only $108,389 through the 2024-12-31 horizon; never reached $400,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin could reach $600,000 by the end of 2025 (power law + ETF-flow extrapolation).
“Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by the end of 2024 and $600,000 by the end of 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $600,000.
Open (6)
- ⏳
Bitcoin's bear market is ending soon, since historical bear markets last ~12-13 months and this one is 9 months in.
“Bitcoin has been going down for 9 months. Here's the history of bear markets: 2013–15: ~13 months 2017–18: ~12 months 2021–22: ~12 months No matter how you look at it, the end is near.”
Falsifiable timing call that BTC's ~9-month downtrend ends near the historical ~12-13 month bear-market length, i.e. within roughly 3 months.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will make a new all-time high in 2026 despite the current bear talk.
“How Bitcoin is going to take over the world. 1. We're going to make a new high THIS YEAR despite all the bear talk.”
New-ATH-in-2026 window not elapsed; ATH stands at $126,296 and current price $58,161 is nowhere near, but year is still open.
- ⏳
Based on a chart of Bitcoin's historical price-doubling periods (BTC hitting ~$128k in October 2025), Krueger suggested the next major doubling target is $256,000. No firm deadline was stated by Krueger; the article estimated mid-2027 by extrapolating average historical doubling time.
“the next major market target could now be $256,000”
$256k doubling target estimated mid-2027; window not elapsed and current $58,161 is far from target.
- ⏳
Per the Bitcoin Power Law model Krueger co-popularized, Bitcoin reaches approximately $1 million per coin around 2033.
“projects Bitcoin reaching approximately $1 million per coin around 2033”
Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-08); 2033-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Per the Bitcoin Power Law model, Bitcoin reaches approximately $10 million per coin by 2045.
“projects....$10 million per coin by 2045”
Not reached yet (high $67,264 since 2026-06-08); 2045-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Krueger said 2026 will be 'an awesome year' for Bitcoin (ultra-bullish outlook for the year).
“an awesome year”
2026 window (deadline 2026-12-31) not elapsed; BTC currently $58,161, below the $64,068 made price — outcome undetermined.