Dylan LeClair
Resolved (5)
- ✓
Framed the spring-2024 pullback as a bull-market dip rather than a cycle top, writing 'This bull market has legs, and the current pullback from the highs ... should be a welcomed development for investors,' and signing off 'BTFD' (buy the dip).
“This bull market has legs, and the current pullback from the highs, along with any future dips in the exchange rate, should be a welcomed development for investors. ... BTFD.”
Framed April 2024 dip from $61,279 as a buyable bull-market dip; BTC subsequently rallied to a new high of $126,296, validating the 'bull market has legs / BTFD' call.
- ✗
In an April 7, 2024 analyst note, said it was 'pretty unlikely' Bitcoin revisits the ~$50,000 level given the structure of higher lows and lack of froth in derivatives, and noted that a rally into $70,000-$75,000 would force heavy short liquidations.
“While there is a large cluster of longs that could be taken out at ~50k, given the structure of higher lows and the lack of immediate froth in the derivatives landscape currently, I find it pretty unlikely we revisit that level.”
He said it was 'pretty unlikely' BTC revisits ~$50k, but low_since_made hit $49,050 — BTC did revisit and breach that level.
- ✓
A real Bitcoin bull run is probably 12 to 24 months away from now.
“we probably got, like, you know, 12, 18, who knows, maybe 24 months before, like, what people think of as, like, a Bitcoin bull run really manifests. And maybe I'm super wrong with that timeline, but, that's kinda how I think of things.”
Said a real bull run was 12-24 months out from Aug 2023 ($25,932), i.e. by ~2025; BTC rallied to ATH $126,296 by deadline, manifesting a clear bull run within the window.
- ✓
The worst of BTC's price capitulation is over; Bitcoin will grind sideways for an extended period rather than experience further sharp downside.
“I think the worst of the price based capitulation is done. I think we have a painful sideways existence for some time. I mean, I don't know exactly, but for the most part, the exciting part of the bear market in terms of the volatility, the deleveraging, whatever it may be — we've just washed the dead bodies to the shore.”
Said worst of price capitulation was done at $19,935 (Jan 2023); low_since_made was $18,715 (only marginally below) before BTC recovered to $126,296 — the capitulation was essentially over as stated.
- ✗
Argued '$100,000 before years end' for 2021 was 'not as crazy as it may sound' and that '$100,000 in 2021 is in the cards', comparing the setup to the 2017 parabolic FOMO phase once BTC broke its prior all-time high.
“$100,000 before years end? It is not as crazy as it may sound, and here is why: ... $100,000 in 2021 is in the cards.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
Open (2)
- ⏳
At Bitcoin MENA (Abu Dhabi, Dec 2025) argued the Bitcoin four-year (halving) cycle 'may never have existed' and that macro liquidity, not the halving, now drives Bitcoin markets — a regime-shift / 'four-year cycle is dead' call.
“Dylan LeClair, Head of Bitcoin Strategy at Metaplanet, joins David Sencil at the Bitcoin MENA Conference ... The conversation covers ... why the four-year Bitcoin cycle may never have existed, and why macro liquidity now drives Bitcoin markets.”
A 'four-year cycle is dead' regime call made Dec 2025 is a multi-year thesis whose window has not elapsed; BTC's drop from $92,690 to $58,161 is consistent with a normal cyclical drawdown, leaving the broader thesis undetermined.
- ⏳
There will be a bear market because everything is cyclical, but he does not believe the big secular bear thesis of a ~70% drawdown followed by a multi-year 'go home for three years' bear will happen this time; expects shallower repricing/chop instead.
“the big secular bear market thesis of like, okay, we're going to, you know, 70% down, we're going to call it, we're going to all go home for three years, pack it up. I don't know if I, I put Wade into that. I don't, I actually don't believe that will happen... but everything's cyclical, right? So I think there will be a bear market.”
He expected shallower chop, not a ~70% secular bear; from $117,830 BTC fell to $58,000 (~51% drawdown) — deep but not yet 70%, and the multi-year window for whether a full secular bear plays out has not elapsed.