Dylan LeClair
Resolved (8)
- ✓
Framed the spring-2024 pullback as a bull-market dip rather than a cycle top, writing 'This bull market has legs, and the current pullback from the highs ... should be a welcomed development for investors,' and signing off 'BTFD' (buy the dip).
“This bull market has legs, and the current pullback from the highs, along with any future dips in the exchange rate, should be a welcomed development for investors. ... BTFD.”
Framed April 2024 dip from $61,279 as a buyable bull-market dip; BTC subsequently rallied to a new high of $126,296, validating the 'bull market has legs / BTFD' call.
- ✓
The drop to $60k is a normal bull-market pullback: Bitcoin consolidates around $60k, then takes out the liquidity above (shorts forced to buy at $74-76k) and probably rips toward ~$80k quickly.
“73,000 right and eventually we're taking that liquidity and a bunch of shorts are going to be Force buyers at 74,000 at 75,000 at 76 and they're going to be buying it to no liquidity and we're probably going to rip to 80,000 in the”
BTC consolidated in the $55-72k band then broke out in late Oct 2024, ripping through $80k (to $106,137 by Dec) — the called liquidity-grab-then-rip played out.
- ✗
In an April 7, 2024 analyst note, said it was 'pretty unlikely' Bitcoin revisits the ~$50,000 level given the structure of higher lows and lack of froth in derivatives, and noted that a rally into $70,000-$75,000 would force heavy short liquidations.
“While there is a large cluster of longs that could be taken out at ~50k, given the structure of higher lows and the lack of immediate froth in the derivatives landscape currently, I find it pretty unlikely we revisit that level.”
He said it was 'pretty unlikely' BTC revisits ~$50k, but low_since_made hit $49,050 — BTC did revisit and breach that level.
- ✓
Bitcoin is headed to six figures and above this cycle (driven by demand-side adoption, not the halving itself).
“having next this month in 17 days the time of recording it's not what's going to be drive us to six figures and above the having is a mere reality of quantitative Monet you know quantitative monetary policy programmatic monetary”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-04-03..2026-04-03], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
Bitcoin (at ~$67.5k) is at the start of a new bubble — the boom/bust cycle of market cap overshooting realized cap will happen again.
“really clear trend of Bubbles and Booms and busts right and here we go Bitcoin right this is you know kind of the start of a new bubble and so again is it too late to buy the cycle this is not what I'm saying right this is this will this”
From ~$67.5k (2024-03-21, high $68,234) BTC ran to $100k by Dec 2024 and ATH $126,296 on 2025-10-06 — the new bull/bubble cycle materialized.
- ✓
A real Bitcoin bull run is probably 12 to 24 months away from now.
“we probably got, like, you know, 12, 18, who knows, maybe 24 months before, like, what people think of as, like, a Bitcoin bull run really manifests. And maybe I'm super wrong with that timeline, but, that's kinda how I think of things.”
Said a real bull run was 12-24 months out from Aug 2023 ($25,932), i.e. by ~2025; BTC rallied to ATH $126,296 by deadline, manifesting a clear bull run within the window.
- ✓
The worst of BTC's price capitulation is over; Bitcoin will grind sideways for an extended period rather than experience further sharp downside.
“I think the worst of the price based capitulation is done. I think we have a painful sideways existence for some time. I mean, I don't know exactly, but for the most part, the exciting part of the bear market in terms of the volatility, the deleveraging, whatever it may be — we've just washed the dead bodies to the shore.”
Said worst of price capitulation was done at $19,935 (Jan 2023); low_since_made was $18,715 (only marginally below) before BTC recovered to $126,296 — the capitulation was essentially over as stated.
- ✗
Argued '$100,000 before years end' for 2021 was 'not as crazy as it may sound' and that '$100,000 in 2021 is in the cards', comparing the setup to the 2017 parabolic FOMO phase once BTC broke its prior all-time high.
“$100,000 before years end? It is not as crazy as it may sound, and here is why: ... $100,000 in 2021 is in the cards.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $100,000.
Open (2)
- ⏳
At Bitcoin MENA (Abu Dhabi, Dec 2025) argued the Bitcoin four-year (halving) cycle 'may never have existed' and that macro liquidity, not the halving, now drives Bitcoin markets — a regime-shift / 'four-year cycle is dead' call.
“Dylan LeClair, Head of Bitcoin Strategy at Metaplanet, joins David Sencil at the Bitcoin MENA Conference ... The conversation covers ... why the four-year Bitcoin cycle may never have existed, and why macro liquidity now drives Bitcoin markets.”
'Four-year cycle may never have existed' regime thesis; the 30-month window is open and the $92,690→$57,717 drop is consistent with a normal drawdown.
- ⏳
There will be a bear market because everything is cyclical, but he does not believe the big secular bear thesis of a ~70% drawdown followed by a multi-year 'go home for three years' bear will happen this time; expects shallower repricing/chop instead.
“the big secular bear market thesis of like, okay, we're going to, you know, 70% down, we're going to call it, we're going to all go home for three years, pack it up. I don't know if I, I put Wade into that. I don't, I actually don't believe that will happen... but everything's cyclical, right? So I think there will be a bear market.”
Expected a shallower-than-70% bear; the drawdown so far is ~51% ($117,830→$57,717) — under 70% but the multi-year cycle window is open.