DonAlt
Resolved (12)
- ✓
Even if Bitcoin dips a bunch lower intra-month (a full breakdown toward $40-45k is possible), it will probably end June around $60k, gravitating to his monthly support cluster.
“But I would still think that we're probably going to end the month around 60. So, that opens up like a trade opportunity if we do fully crash. Then I definitely want to be buying the next support lower down um because you”
BTC fell as low as $58,000 in [2026-06-05..2026-06-30], reaching the $60,000 downside target.
- ✓
DonAlt characterizes BTC as 'not bad, but not great either' — firmly capped above by a seller zone at $82,300 and protected below by support at $60,000 — and says Bitcoin could correct toward ~$60,000 support, attributing such a move to crowd psychology rather than a fundamental trend breakdown.
“The price is firmly capped from above by the seller zone at $82,300, while from below the market is protected by a strong support block at $60,000”
Said BTC could correct toward the ~$60,000 support and stay capped near $82,300; BTC corrected from $66,658 to the $60k zone (low $58,000, now $58,161), as called (slightly overshooting support).
- ◐
Bitcoin is probably going to chop — not below $60k anytime soon and not necessarily above $100k anytime soon; anything in between is just chop.
“Uh like that's kind of like my going thesis. It's probably going to chop. Um I don't think it's going to go below 60K anytime soon. Um I don't think we're necessarily going to go above 100K anytime soon. Anything in between there”
The $100k ceiling held, but BTC broke below $60k ~8 weeks later ($57,717 on 7/1, ~4% under the $60k floor) — one bound held, one broke.
- ✗
After the breakout above ~$70-71k he is expecting Bitcoin up (looking to take profits into ~$94-95k), with losing $70k again as his invalidation for another leg down.
“like that's kind of my invalidation. Like, okay, we we start losing 70k again, um then then I think it's we're we might have another leg to the downside. Otherwise, I'm just expecting up, and I do agree with you. 82k is the”
The $70k invalidation triggered (BTC fell to $57,717); the base-case up-move to $94-95k never came (post-4/17 high only $82,814).
- ✗
DonAlt says Bitcoin will likely keep choppy in the ~$70,000 range but expects it to accelerate higher once it closes near $82,000 on the monthly chart; closing around $76,000-$78,000 toward $82,000 would signal the rally is going to accelerate.
“If you close anywhere close to $82,000...I'd be, OK, we're probably just going to accelerate.”
Predicted acceleration higher once closing near $82k; BTC touched $82,814 but failed to accelerate and instead collapsed ~22% to $58,161 — no sustained breakout.
- ✓
The only thing he's really expecting is chop — a dip to ~$60k is possible but still chop; he'd be surprised by a major move below $60k absent something catastrophic.
“pretty good setup. Sorry, go on. The only thing that I'm really expecting is chop. Like just I mean and obviously I think the 60k would be possible. Like but that's still chop for me. That's still in the realm of where we are”
BTC chopped from $73k down to $57,717 with the sub-$60k dip shallow and brief — no major breakdown below $60k, as called.
- ✓
Bitcoin will probably go sideways for a while between roughly $60k and $80k, and most of the pain is probably done (barring a world-ending event).
“we're probably just going to go sideways for a while between like 60 and 80 K-ish. Mhm. And um But generally, I feel like we're like most of the pain is probably done unless the world is ending. Okay.”
BTC traded dominantly $60-80k from 4/4 to 7/6 (full range $57,717–$82,814), with only brief ~4% breaks each side — sideways as called.
- ✓
DonAlt bought a little Bitcoin around $26,000 ('you could make an argument for buying here'), with a profit target near $30,000 and an invalidation around $25,000 — below which he expects proper capitulation toward $20,000.
“We're at the point where you could make an argument for buying here [around $26,000] ... you basically have an invalidation around $25,000 right now”
Bought ~$26k with $25k invalidation and $30k target; low since $25,984 held the invalidation and BTC blew past $30k to $126,296.
- ✓
DonAlt is bullish on BTC from the ~$16,000 base and says his new invalidation for anything is really below $22,000; if BTC dumps below $23,000 in the next two days, 'forget I ever said that'. Next resistance is $35,000.
“If the next two days go horribly wrong, and we dump below $23,000, forget I ever said that ... my new invalidation for anything is really below $22,000 ... the next resistance is $35,000”
Bullish with invalidation below $22,000 and $35k resistance; low since was $24,750 (invalidation never hit) and BTC rallied through $35k to $126,296.
- ✓
On the weekly timeframe DonAlt sees BTC potentially climbing near $33,000 before correcting back to $27,000, then attempting to break the $35,000 monthly resistance; $35,000 is the key level that decides whether BTC 'wants to move up'.
“the breakout will be confirmed when this monthly close is above the resistance of about $24,000; this would be the first positive signal”
BTC traded as high as $45,000 in [2023-03-20..2023-12-20], reaching the $35,000 target.
- ✓
DonAlt says he is buying Bitcoin now around the $19,000 level and is 'always comfortable buying below $20,000', and would add more if it drops lower.
“I'm buying now ... always comfortable buying below $20,000”
Comfortable buying below $20,000 near $19,156; BTC bottomed near there ($15,460 low) and rallied enormously to $126,296 — the sub-$20k buy thesis paid off.
- ✓
Bitcoin is 'bullish until proven otherwise' — DonAlt says he will remain bullish until he sees weakness; his invalidation is a move below $44,000 (BTC trading ~$54,675 at the time, having just cleared $50k).
“I'm just going to remain bullish until I see weakness ... Anything above $44,000 and that's quite a bit away now”
Stayed bullish with a $44,000 invalidation; BTC immediately rallied to a new ATH (~$69k, high since $126,296) before any invalidation, vindicating the bullish stance.