DonAlt
Resolved (7)
- ✓
DonAlt characterizes BTC as 'not bad, but not great either' — firmly capped above by a seller zone at $82,300 and protected below by support at $60,000 — and says Bitcoin could correct toward ~$60,000 support, attributing such a move to crowd psychology rather than a fundamental trend breakdown.
“The price is firmly capped from above by the seller zone at $82,300, while from below the market is protected by a strong support block at $60,000”
Said BTC could correct toward the ~$60,000 support and stay capped near $82,300; BTC corrected from $66,658 to the $60k zone (low $58,000, now $58,161), as called (slightly overshooting support).
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DonAlt says Bitcoin will likely keep choppy in the ~$70,000 range but expects it to accelerate higher once it closes near $82,000 on the monthly chart; closing around $76,000-$78,000 toward $82,000 would signal the rally is going to accelerate.
“If you close anywhere close to $82,000...I'd be, OK, we're probably just going to accelerate.”
Predicted acceleration higher once closing near $82k; BTC touched $82,814 but failed to accelerate and instead collapsed ~22% to $58,161 — no sustained breakout.
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DonAlt bought a little Bitcoin around $26,000 ('you could make an argument for buying here'), with a profit target near $30,000 and an invalidation around $25,000 — below which he expects proper capitulation toward $20,000.
“We're at the point where you could make an argument for buying here [around $26,000] ... you basically have an invalidation around $25,000 right now”
Bought ~$26k with $25k invalidation and $30k target; low since $25,984 held the invalidation and BTC blew past $30k to $126,296.
- ✓
DonAlt is bullish on BTC from the ~$16,000 base and says his new invalidation for anything is really below $22,000; if BTC dumps below $23,000 in the next two days, 'forget I ever said that'. Next resistance is $35,000.
“If the next two days go horribly wrong, and we dump below $23,000, forget I ever said that ... my new invalidation for anything is really below $22,000 ... the next resistance is $35,000”
Bullish with invalidation below $22,000 and $35k resistance; low since was $24,750 (invalidation never hit) and BTC rallied through $35k to $126,296.
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On the weekly timeframe DonAlt sees BTC potentially climbing near $33,000 before correcting back to $27,000, then attempting to break the $35,000 monthly resistance; $35,000 is the key level that decides whether BTC 'wants to move up'.
“the breakout will be confirmed when this monthly close is above the resistance of about $24,000; this would be the first positive signal”
BTC traded as high as $45,000 in [2023-03-20..2023-12-20], reaching the $35,000 target.
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DonAlt says he is buying Bitcoin now around the $19,000 level and is 'always comfortable buying below $20,000', and would add more if it drops lower.
“I'm buying now ... always comfortable buying below $20,000”
Comfortable buying below $20,000 near $19,156; BTC bottomed near there ($15,460 low) and rallied enormously to $126,296 — the sub-$20k buy thesis paid off.
- ✓
Bitcoin is 'bullish until proven otherwise' — DonAlt says he will remain bullish until he sees weakness; his invalidation is a move below $44,000 (BTC trading ~$54,675 at the time, having just cleared $50k).
“I'm just going to remain bullish until I see weakness ... Anything above $44,000 and that's quite a bit away now”
Stayed bullish with a $44,000 invalidation; BTC immediately rallied to a new ATH (~$69k, high since $126,296) before any invalidation, vindicating the bullish stance.