Dan Morehead
Resolved (12)
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In an October 2025 Real Vision interview with Raoul Pal (BTC then ~$110k, near its ATH), Morehead said the crypto bull run was not done and that the next six to 12 months would still be a 'big rally,' driven mainly by U.S. regulatory changes.
“The regulatory changes in the US, I think just trump everything… I think the next six to 12 months are still a big rally.”
Made 2025-10-23 at $110,116 calling a big 6-12mo rally; by 2026-06-30 deadline high was only $116,410 then crashed to $58,161 (~-47%).
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In Pantera's 'Bonds Down, Crypto Up' Blockchain Letter, Morehead called the start of a new crypto bull market, arguing the bear market had run its course: 'It's been a full year since TerraLUNA/SBF/etc. It's been enough time. We can rally now.'
“I've learned there's just so long markets can be down. Only so much pain investors can take. It's been a full year since TerraLUNA/SBF/etc. It's been enough time. We can rally now.”
Made 2023-07-15 at $30,302; market rallied as called, reaching $126,296.
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Markets have absorbed enough pain since the 2022 collapses — Bitcoin can rally from here.
“Having traded 35 yrs of market cycles, I’ve learned there’s just so long markets can be down. Only so much pain investors can take. It’s been a full year since TerraLUNA/SBF/etc. It’s been enough time. We can rally now. Bitcoin YoY now positive. More: https://t.co/fP5r12A3GK https://t.co/ulBuNMmCad”
From $30,382 (7/12/23) BTC rallied to $44,193 by Dec 2023 and on to new ATHs in 2024.
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Enough time has passed since the 2022 blowups — Bitcoin can rally now.
“It’s been over a year since Terra/LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, et al. Bitcoin’s year-over-year return bottomed at -76% amidst the FTX debacle last November. It recently flipped positive and is now at 31%. We believe it’s been enough time, that we can rally now. https://t.co/9OYgStmz00”
From $28,320 (6/20/23) BTC rose to $44,193 by Dec 2023 and kept climbing into 2024.
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Bitcoin's bear-market lows are in and the next bull market cycle is underway.
“#Bitcoin bear markets: Median duration: 307 days Recent bear market: 376 days Median drawdown: -73% Recent bear market: -77% I think blockchain assets have seen the lows and that we’re in the next bull market cycle. Additional thoughts: https://t.co/ZObb9MrTyc https://t.co/O3KAMzIQE1”
The $15.5k Nov-2022 low held (post low $19,569 on 3/10/23) and BTC rallied through 2023-24 to new ATHs above $100k.
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Blockchain assets, with Bitcoin as the proxy, have seen their lows and the next bull market cycle has begun.
“I believe that blockchain assets (using bitcoin as a proxy) have seen the lows and that we’re in the next bull market cycle – regardless of what happens in the interest-rate-sensitive asset classes. More on the markets in our February letter: https://t.co/ZObb9MrTyc https://t.co/CHUr9S2UUp”
From ~$21,801 BTC never made a lower low than the Nov-2022 $15.5k bottom and climbed to $44,193 (Dec 2023) and $100k+ (2024).
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Bitcoin has already bottomed and will soon resume its long-term 2.3x-per-year growth trend.
“Crypto being down in line with tech-oriented equities—in the face of historic idiosyncratic disasters in our industry—shows its resilience. I believe Bitcoin's already bottomed and we'll see it continue its 13-year 2.3x per year growth trend soon. More: https://t.co/M1HLBIMyOH https://t.co/g3ktSVQ5pH”
The Nov-2022 $15.5k low was never revisited (post-1/25 low $19,569 on 3/10/23); BTC rose to $44,193 by Dec 2023 and above $100k in 2024.
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Using Pantera's halving-cycle / stock-to-flow model (first published in the Nov. 2022 Blockchain Letter when BTC was near its ~$16k cycle low), Morehead forecast that Bitcoin would hit $117,482 on August 11, 2025. Pantera later confirmed the target was met.
“During the crypto winter we used our work on the previous three bitcoin halvings to forecast that bitcoin would hit $117,482 on August 11, 2025. It did!!!”
BTC traded as high as $123,231 in [2022-11-30..2025-08-11], reaching the $117,482 target.
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Bitcoin will reach $115,000 by August 2021 (Pantera's halving-model price target, set in April 2020).
“I still think it's highly likely that we hit something like $115,000 this summer. ... we originally forecast August 1st, if we want to get really specific.”
BTC's high was only $59,592 through the 2021-08-01 horizon; never reached $115,000.
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Bitcoin will be approximately 213% higher a year from now, putting it at $200,000.
“My prediction is Bitcoin will be 213% higher a year from now. That puts it at $200,000 a year from now. And I know it sounds crazy, but I think it's likely to happen.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2022-04-27 horizon; never reached $200,000.
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Bitcoin will hit approximately $74,000 by May 15, 2021, per Pantera's monthly forecast table.
“the 15th of May, you've got it at $74,000. So maybe we're just having that dip before we run up to $74,000. Yeah, and as I mentioned, there's times in the last eight months that it was a little ahead of pace, there's some times it's a little behind pace.”
BTC's high was only $59,592 through the 2021-05-15 horizon; never reached $74,000.
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Morehead reaffirmed Pantera's stock-to-flow forecast that Bitcoin would reach about $115,000 'this summer' (by August 2021), having doubled down on the $115K-by-August-2021 call on a Jan. 12, 2021 conference call and restated it in his March 2021 Blockchain Letter (BTC then ~$55k).
“Bitcoin is now ahead of our April 2020 forecast schedule – to hit $115K this summer”
BTC's high was only $64,899 through the 2021-08-31 horizon; never reached $115,000.
Open (2)
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Bitcoin can rise a fourth order of magnitude to roughly a $15 trillion market cap.
“#Bitcoin has gone up three orders of magnitude since we launched Pantera Bitcoin Fund. I think it can go up a fourth. That puts it at $15 trillion market cap, which still seems relatively small versus $500 trillion of financial assets. That’s doable. https://t.co/fRIgZ51DaX”
Market-cap framing (a $15T cap implies roughly $700k+ per BTC) with no deadline; made near $104k, BTC ~$60k in mid-2026 — long-term, unresolved.
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In his November 2024 Blockchain Letter ('Pantera Bitcoin Fund Hits 1,000x'), Morehead said that if Bitcoin's long-run trendline continued it would reach $740,000/BTC (a ~$15 trillion market cap) in April 2028, while cautioning it would likely 'take a few years longer.'
“If and when bitcoin gets to $740,000 /BTC, that's a market cap of $15 trillion. Not an inconceivable number, relative to $500 trillion in financial assets. While the past does not necessarily predict the future, if the trend were to continue, bitcoin would hit $740,000 in April 2028.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-11-26); 2028-04-30 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.