Cory Klippsten
Resolved (1)
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If I were placing a money bet, I would say that we'll see $75k before December 31 (2024). It wouldn't be a big deal if that was delayed into Q1.
“If I were placing a money bet, I would say that we'll see $75k before December 31 ... But it wouldn't be a big deal if that was delayed into Q1”
BTC traded as high as $108,389 in [2024-09-18..2024-12-31], reaching the $75,000 target.
Open (5)
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Revised odds of a new all-time high in 2026 down to '20 or 25%' after BTC fell from ~$95,000 to the $60,000 range (down from roughly 50% earlier in the year when BTC was near $95k).
“20 or 25% chance that we get a new [high]”
Low-odds (20-25%) of a new ATH in 2026; window open through 2026-12-31 and high since is only $76,034 (far from ~$126k ATH), so not yet determined.
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There is a more than 50% chance Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high in 2026, with prices potentially moving above $125,000. (Stated on CNBC; described $85k-$91k chop as consolidation, not weakness, and said 'it's hard to imagine a steep collapse from here.')
“he estimates there is more than a 50% chance Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026, with prices potentially moving above $125,000”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2025-12-26); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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There is a very good chance that Bitcoin's famous four-year price cycles are over, killed by institutional adoption. If Bitcoin hits a new all-time high in 2026 or avoids a drawdown of more than 70%, it would show the four-year cycle is finished; the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 changed the game.
“There is a very good chance that Bitcoins famous four-year price cycles are over, killed by institutional adoption”
Four-years-over thesis hinges on no new ATH AND no >70% drawdown through 2026-12-31; window still open — no new ATH yet (high $97,964) and drawdown to $58,000 is ~54% from ~$126k, not yet >70%, so undetermined.
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I expect to see Bitcoin at a million in the next five, six years (i.e. ~2030-2031), with Bitcoin and gold market caps crossing sometime in the second half of the 2030s.
“I expect to see Bitcoin at a million in the next five, six years”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-23); 2031-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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I think we'll have satoshi-cent parity, which means a million dollars a coin by 2030. It doesn't need any external catalyst other than continued growth and adoption.
“I think we'll have satoshi-cent parity, which means a million dollars a coin by 2030”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2024-09-18); 2030-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.