Checkonchain
Resolved (4)
- ◐
The price-based capitulation bottom is in at the ~$60k February 2026 low; at 60k his mean-reversion quantile gives ~90% odds the market goes higher from there.
“there is below 70K, I'm calling it we're in deep value. And at 60K, I'm very much in your camp, where I'm going to say the price paying capitulation bottom is in. And it's important to remember that my definition here, I don't know where the”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-03-27..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
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Bitcoin is expected to form a bottom in the $50,000-$70,000 range during 2026, with a phase of sideways movement and 'price pain' (fear and pain, not good feelings) before an eventual parabolic rise.
“James Check expects Bitcoin to form a bottom pattern in the $50,000 to $70,000 range by 2026 ... True bottoms in Bitcoin are formed not by 'good feelings,' but by 'fear and pain.'”
Within the 2026 window BTC fell into the $50k-$70k range (low $58,000, now $58,161) amid fear/pain as predicted; bottom-range formation realized, though the later parabolic rise remains future.
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Bottom formation is most likely within the 2024 'chopsolidation' range, somewhere between the mid-$50ks and $70k; base case is BTC trades below $80k then takes a quick trip toward $70k, with the 'point of maximum opportunity' below $70k.
“From a technical, onchain, and probabilistic standpoint, almost every metric I track suggests bottom formation is most likely within the 2024 chopsolidation range, somewhere between the mid-$50ks, and $70k. ... I am of the view, that we enter the point of maximum opportunity below $70k. ... My base case at this stage, is that we likely trade below $80k, and then undergo a quick trip towards $70k, back-filling the air-pocket.”
Base case played out: from $84,111 BTC traded below $80k and down to a low of $58,000 — into the mid-$50ks-to-$70k bottom-formation range called as the point of maximum opportunity.
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$95k is the price level that shifts the balance in favour of the bears (floor of 'The HODLers Wall'); a break below it means conditions deteriorate, with ~65% of invested USD holding a cost basis above this level.
“In my opinion, the price level which shifts the balance in favour of the bears is $95k, which is the floor of The HODLers Wall.”
Called $95k as the bear-tipping floor; BTC broke below $95k (from $99,615, high $104,050) and conditions deteriorated hard to $58,161 — the break-below signaled the downturn as stated.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Bitcoin looks a lot more likely headed up to the "vaulted price" at ~$145k, where hodlers ramp up selling — "I just feel like we belong at 150."
“Really the rules we've been talking about for Hodler's wall have not changed. It just looks a lot more likely that we're headed up to the vaulted price at 145K. This is the zone where hodlers are likely to really ramp up”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-10-04); 2026-10-04 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.