Charles Edwards
Resolved (15)
- ◐
Bitcoin closing below $60K this week would signal the start of real pain, implying $60K is a critical support floor.
“Real pain begins if this week BTC closes under $60K.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-26..2026-07-06] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✗
Institutions are absorbing 500%+ of daily mined supply; in prior cases price averaged +24% over the next month, which from here "would take us to around $96K."
“Institutions are slurping up 500%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply. Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week. The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month from here, that would take is to around $96K.”
BTC's high was only $82,814 through the 2026-06-04 horizon; never reached $96,000.
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Above $71,500 it is 'hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin'; a monthly close above $71,500 would be Bitcoin's strongest technical monthly finish in a year, supported by long-term-holder accumulation, depressed SOPR, miner capitulation, and returning institutional buyers.
“Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it's hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
Bullish-above-$71,500 thesis failed — from $74,836 BTC dropped below $71,500 and kept falling to $58,000 (current $58,161).
- ✗
Bitcoin is bullish as long as daily closes remain above $71K, with conviction increasing on a weekly close above $71.5K.
“As long as the daily keeps closing above $71K, I am bullish Bitcoin here. If this weekly closes above $71.5K, that will increase my conviction.”
Bullish-above-$71K thesis failed: from $72,998 BTC managed only $82,814 then broke down through $71K to a low of $58,000, ending at $58,161 — the bullish condition was lost and the move was down.
- ✓
Bitcoin is 'closer to the bottom than the top', broadly within a value range; a weekly close above ~$71,500 would be a meaningful short-term bullish signal, while true 'deep value' sits in the ~$50,000-$60,000 production-cost band (low-to-mid $50,000s particularly attractive).
“Bitcoin I think you could summarize in a few words as it's close to the bottom than the top.”
'Closer to bottom than top / deep value low-to-mid $50Ks' — from $70,944 BTC fell into his value band, now $58,161 (low $58,000), with prior ATH ~$126K far above.
- ◐
Bitcoin will likely never make a new all-time high until Bitcoin Core addresses quantum computing risk seriously.
“RT @caprioleio: Bitcoin will likely never make a new ATH until Bitcoin Core takes Quantum risk seriously.”
Same 'never a new ATH' call; high since made only $82,814, far below prior ~$126k ATH, and BTC fell to $58,161 — no new ATH made, so it held in fact, but the open-ended 'never' can't be fully resolved CORRECT.
- ✓
Bitcoin will spend months below its production cost of $59K before the bear market ends, based on historical precedent.
“Production cost is $59K. We've never had a bear market which didnt spend _months_ below it.”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2026-02-28..2026-07-06], reaching the $59,000 downside target.
- ✓
Bitcoin's on-chain heat signal at historically low levels implies at least a short-term recovery or a major price bottom is near.
“Bitcoin heater is firing. Every time it's been this low, we've either seen at least a few days of recovery or a major bottom.”
Made 2026-02-07 at $69,245; BTC recovered to a high of $82,814 afterward, satisfying the 'at least a few days of recovery' floor of the claim.
- ✗
Bitcoin could reach $150,000 before year-end 2025 if institutional buying continues and BTC maintains levels above $120,000; "I wouldn't be surprised if we went up to $150,000 in a pretty short time... potentially in the next days."
“I wouldn't be surprised if we went up to $150,000 in a pretty short time, like we have to break out of the $120,000 range. But that's probably coming, potentially in the next days.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
- ✗
After a strong $100K breakout, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within 4-12 weeks, mirroring gold's $3.8T summer gain; "it wouldn't be surprising to see $200K Bitcoin in 4-12 weeks from a strong $100K breakout."
“In just 16 weeks, Gold gained $3.8T this summer. Bitcoin from $100K to $200K is just $2T. So it wouldn't be surprising to see $200K Bitcoin in 4-12 weeks from a strong $100K breakout. After all, BTC is a superior, more liquid, fungible and divisible asset that trades 24/7.”
BTC's high was only $109,358 through the 2025-02-20 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✓
After Bitcoin breaks the $100K level, the next $100K move will likely happen in weeks rather than years.
“It took 15 years for Bitcoin to get to $100K. When it breaks, the next $100K will likely happen in weeks.”
BTC broke $100k and the next $100k came fast — high_since_made $126,296 reached within weeks of the late-2024 $100k break, exactly the 'weeks not years' timing claimed.
- ✗
Bitcoin's historical price floor will be $41,200 in just 5 months (i.e. by the April 2024 halving), because the halving doubles the electrical production cost overnight.
“Bitcoin's historical price floor will be $41,200 in just 5 months.”
BTC fell to $37,500 in [2023-11-29..2024-04-30], below the $41,200 floor.
- ✓
Bitcoin's Macro Index is entering an expansion phase that historically precedes a major rally; identified next substantial resistance in the $58,000-$65,000 range provided ~$35,000 holds as support.
“could be a precursor to a remarkable surge in value, echoing the sentiments of the historic 400% bull run”
$35K support held (low $35,358) and a major rally followed to $126,296, far above the $58-65K resistance he flagged.
- ✓
Bump-and-Run Reversal bottom is back with a measured-move target of over $100,000.
“Textbook perfect Bitcoin "Bump & Run Reversal" bottom is back and the target is over $100,000.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-03-15..2026-03-15], reaching the $100,000 target.
- ✓
A thread of on-chain signals suggest the Bitcoin bottom is in, or very close; described as 'an extraordinary opportunity' based on Bitcoin's 13-year history (Bitcoin Bottom Signal Series).
“A thread of on-chain signals which suggest the Bitcoin bottom is in, or very close.”
Dec-2022 bottom call at $17,089 was right — low since only $16,273 then rallied to $126,296.
Open (1)
- ⏳
The Bitcoin four-year cycle as previously known is dead: 'the primary driving force behind Bitcoin cycle 80-90% drawdowns historically is dead'; the 'miner-driven cycle is largely dead' due to post-halving supply growth falling to ~0.8%.
“In short – the primary driving force behind Bitcoin cycle 80-90% drawdowns historically is dead.”
No-80/90%-drawdown structural claim; the 30-month cycle window is open and the drawdown so far is ~54% ($126,296→$57,717), which neither confirms nor falsifies it.