Bob Loukas
Resolved (16)
- ✓
Bitcoin is near the end of a counter-trend bear market rally, with resistance around $85k-$88k.
“Bitcoin - Getting close now to the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market. $85-$88k area. However, there is a difference to this move. Counter trend moves are typically stronger (impulse) and shorter duration, this move is more consistent with base building”
BTC's high was $82,814, stayed at/below $88,000 (through 2026-05-10).
- ✓
In the declining phase, the typical script for Bitcoin is a move to around the $85,000 level before the bear trend resumes.
“Typical script for Bitcoin in the declining phase is around the $85k level before resumption of the trend.”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-23..2026-07-01], reaching the $85,000 target (within 2.6% — near-miss counted).
- ◐
As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower — price target around $49,000 per BTC.
“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower. ... He also marked his price target for the leading cryptocurrency at around $49,000 per BTC.”
Leg lower did materialize ($68,832 down to $58,000) but the $49,000 target was never hit (low_since_made $58,000).
- ✗
If Bitcoin fails to produce a counter-trend rally, it could see a drop to sub-$50k by March/April 2026, potentially forcing an early 4-year cycle low.
“If Bitcoin sees no counter-trend relief rally, and instead continues the downtrend to sub $50k (into March/April), the possibility this type of action induces an early 4 Year Cycle low is real.”
BTC's low was only $63,020 through the 2026-04-30 horizon; never fell to $50,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $72k before a meaningful counter-trend rally can begin.
“Bitcoin price action remains horrendous. Very weak. After the recent flush out, a natural, sharp counter trend bounce would be expected, but was not forthcoming. Has to reclaim $72k to even consider a counter-trend move. Just bear market things.”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-02-17..2026-07-01], reaching the $72,000 target.
- ◐
Bitcoin will sweep its April 2026 lows to trap bears, then rally to trap bulls.
“Bitcoin down $23,000 in less than 23 days. Sweep the April lows to suck in bears. Then rally to suck in bulls. Nothing comes easy.”
BTC did rally to suck in bulls (high $82,814) then collapsed to $58,000, but the sweep-then-rally sequence only partly matched the described structure.
- ✓
The recent move to $98,000 looks like a counter-trend rally; on month 38 of a 48-month average cycle, Bitcoin's bear market structure remains intact.
“Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycle update. On month 38 of 48(avg). Closing 3rd month below the 10ma. About to close 4 red months in a row, not seen since 2018. Looking like the recent move to $98k was the counter-trend move. Clear divergence from all other assets.”
Counter-trend/bear thesis played out — $98k move was a top; BTC barely ticked to $84,599 then fell to $58,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin's key range remains unresolved and its behavior is classic bear market — the recent bounce is likely a counter-trend rally, not a new bull leg.
“Key range for Bitcoin remains unresolved. Rejected and likely 60-day cycle high. But maybe is enough upside action to suggest it's part of a general counter-trend rally underway. That said, think this is classic bear market behavior. Esp considering equities at ATH's”
Counter-trend bear call correct — after a marginal higher high ($97,964) BTC dropped to $58,000, no new bull leg.
- ✗
I remain heavily inclined toward an imminent upside resolution into a cycle high during Q4; a doubling from the lows of the last few months — call it $105k — gets us up to $210k, with a pretty clear path to the $200,000 level by December (admittedly extremely optimistic).
“A doubling from the lows here in the last few months—let's call it $105k—gets us up to $210k ... getting to the $200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic ... there is a pretty clear path to that possibility”
Path to $200k by Dec 2025 failed — high_by_deadline $126,296, far short of $200k; no Q4 cycle high to target.
- ✗
A doubling effect could send Bitcoin from its current range near $110,000 to as high as $150,000-$170,000 in the short term, with a delayed blowoff / double-cycle structure pushing the peak into a February or March 2026 top.
“Loukas predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000-$170,000 in the short term, given historical price doubling patterns ... a double cycle blowoff could delay the market peak to February or March 2026, extending the uptrend to 39-41 months.”
$150k-$170k target never reached — high_by_deadline (Mar 31 2026) was only $126,296, and BTC sat at $58,161, no blowoff peak.
- ✓
I see no reason to doubt the 4-Year Cycle high is still ahead in mid/late 2025, at a 6-digit print.
“I see no reason to doubt the 4-Year Cycle high is still ahead in mid/late 2025, at a 6-digit print.”
4-year-cycle high in mid/late 2025 at a 6-digit print: high_by_deadline (Dec 31 2025) was $126,296, a six-figure cycle top within the window.
- ✗
Bulls might need to wait through until the Dec weekly cycle low, a 9-month range — significant price action may not materialize until mid-September at the earliest, with range-bound trading extending into December.
“Bulls might need to wait through until the Dec weekly cycle low, a 9-month range.”
Predicted range-bound trading into Dec 2024; instead BTC broke out post-election, rallying from $58,691 to $108,389 by deadline — not a 9-month range.
- ◐
Bitcoin is at a ceiling of $18k in December 2022 with little upside expected until early January.
“$BTC completely decoupled. In its own world of hurt. DCG/Genesis issues still to resolve. Luckily, the Four Year Cycle wants to end, but the cleansing needs to complete. All other pieces in place. I expect little until early Jan. $18k seems like a ceiling for now.”
BTC nudged to $18,385 in [2022-12-02..2023-01-05] — a minor break (within 2.1%) of the $18,000 ceiling.
- ✓
Bitcoin either found its 4-year cycle low in November 2022 or will find it around the next 60-day cycle low near January 5, 2023.
“#bitcoin either found it's bear market (4yr Cycle Low) with this Nov low....or will do so on the next 60-day Cycle low, around the Jan 5th timeframe. Given the contagion and loss of trust with recent events, leaning towards the early Jan lows.”
Cycle low fell in the Nov-2022/Jan-5-2023 window — low_by_deadline $15,993 held as the floor; BTC never traded lower afterward.
- ✗
If Bitcoin closes above $50k it will go straight to $60k; if it cannot recover, $40k is the next target; longer-term $100k is not far away.
“#Bitcoin - Close > $50k, going str8 to $60k. Otherwise, if can't climb out here, $40k here we come. Widen focus > $100k not far away. ETH > $10k.”
BTC's high was only $52,100 through the 2022-09-23 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin is likely to make a new all-time high before the end of October 2021.
“Day 26 of the 60-day #bitcoin Cycle. Consolidating the early Cycle gains. In theory, we need to spend more time (3-5 days) consolidating or a good dip first. That completes the first Half. Either way, new ATH looks in the cards before end of month.”
New ATH before end of Oct 2021 — high_by_deadline $66,999 exceeded the prior ~$64.9k April 2021 ATH within the window.
Open (3)
- ⏳
USD strength will put continued downward pressure on Bitcoin into end of 2026.
“USD putting in its first higher low and high on the Weekly Cycle in a very long time. Possible major bottom. Would suggest more pressure for precious metals and bitcoin into end of year. Stocks don't care, for now,”
Window runs through end-2026 (not elapsed); BTC has slipped from $64,223 to $58,161 so far, consistent with the call but unresolved.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's cycle price low may already be in, but it will need 3-5 months of sideways base-building before the next cycle can launch.
“The Bitcoin low could be in for the cycle, price wise only. Doesn't need deeper. But I'd argue strongly it's going to need 3-5 months (sideways) to build a base from which the next Cycle can launch from.”
Predicts BTC will trade sideways for 3-5 months (approximately September-November 2026) before the next bull cycle begins.
- ⏳
A move to $107,000 for Bitcoin would not be surprising, though it would only mask underlying weakness.
“$107k incoming for Bitcoin would be not be surprising at all. But that only masks the weakness. Still no weekly swing after 8 weeks.”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-13); 2026-10-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.