Bob Loukas
Resolved (25)
- ✓
Bitcoin is near the end of a counter-trend bear market rally, with resistance around $85k-$88k.
“Bitcoin - Getting close now to the end of a natural counter trend move in a bear market. $85-$88k area. However, there is a difference to this move. Counter trend moves are typically stronger (impulse) and shorter duration, this move is more consistent with base building”
BTC's high was $82,814, stayed at/below $88,000 (through 2026-05-10).
- ✓
In the declining phase, the typical script for Bitcoin is a move to around the $85,000 level before the bear trend resumes.
“Typical script for Bitcoin in the declining phase is around the $85k level before resumption of the trend.”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-04-23..2026-07-06], reaching the $85,000 target (within 2.6% — near-miss counted).
- ✓
The bear market remains in control; he seriously doubts the February ~$60k lows are the final cycle low — a lower low is still expected before the cycle bottoms.
“doubt based on the historical structure and the way Bitcoin behaves in the bear market, I doubt seriously that those lows are in. Uh but, there is the chance that in a kind of comeback here towards the timing”
Predicted a lower low than the Feb ~$60k zone; realized — BTC (then $75,163 on Apr 16) fell to $57,718 (Jul 1 2026), below the $60,001 Feb 6 low.
- ◐
As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower — price target around $49,000 per BTC.
“As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower. ... He also marked his price target for the leading cryptocurrency at around $49,000 per BTC.”
Leg lower did materialize ($68,832 down to $58,000) but the $49,000 target was never hit (low_since_made $58,000).
- ✗
If Bitcoin fails to produce a counter-trend rally, it could see a drop to sub-$50k by March/April 2026, potentially forcing an early 4-year cycle low.
“If Bitcoin sees no counter-trend relief rally, and instead continues the downtrend to sub $50k (into March/April), the possibility this type of action induces an early 4 Year Cycle low is real.”
BTC's low was only $63,020 through the 2026-04-30 horizon; never fell to $50,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin needs to reclaim $72k before a meaningful counter-trend rally can begin.
“Bitcoin price action remains horrendous. Very weak. After the recent flush out, a natural, sharp counter trend bounce would be expected, but was not forthcoming. Has to reclaim $72k to even consider a counter-trend move. Just bear market things.”
BTC traded as high as $82,814 in [2026-02-17..2026-07-06], reaching the $72,000 target.
- ◐
Bitcoin will sweep its April 2026 lows to trap bears, then rally to trap bulls.
“Bitcoin down $23,000 in less than 23 days. Sweep the April lows to suck in bears. Then rally to suck in bulls. Nothing comes easy.”
BTC did rally to suck in bulls (high $82,814) then collapsed to $58,000, but the sweep-then-rally sequence only partly matched the described structure.
- ✓
The recent move to $98,000 looks like a counter-trend rally; on month 38 of a 48-month average cycle, Bitcoin's bear market structure remains intact.
“Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycle update. On month 38 of 48(avg). Closing 3rd month below the 10ma. About to close 4 red months in a row, not seen since 2018. Looking like the recent move to $98k was the counter-trend move. Clear divergence from all other assets.”
Counter-trend/bear thesis played out — $98k move was a top; BTC barely ticked to $84,599 then fell to $58,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin's key range remains unresolved and its behavior is classic bear market — the recent bounce is likely a counter-trend rally, not a new bull leg.
“Key range for Bitcoin remains unresolved. Rejected and likely 60-day cycle high. But maybe is enough upside action to suggest it's part of a general counter-trend rally underway. That said, think this is classic bear market behavior. Esp considering equities at ATH's”
Counter-trend bear call correct — after a marginal higher high ($97,964) BTC dropped to $58,000, no new bull leg.
- ✗
I remain heavily inclined toward an imminent upside resolution into a cycle high during Q4; a doubling from the lows of the last few months — call it $105k — gets us up to $210k, with a pretty clear path to the $200,000 level by December (admittedly extremely optimistic).
“A doubling from the lows here in the last few months—let's call it $105k—gets us up to $210k ... getting to the $200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic ... there is a pretty clear path to that possibility”
Path to $200k by Dec 2025 failed — high_by_deadline $126,296, far short of $200k; no Q4 cycle high to target.
- ◐
An imminent blowoff phase into the Q4-2025 four-year-cycle peak is about to begin — a significant two-to-three-month move higher.
“We're right on that doorstep right now. So, we really should be looking for a blowoff phase that is imminent, that is just about to begin in my opinion.”
Peak timing right (top $126,296 on Oct 6 2025, from $113,348 on Sep 24) but only a ~11% move — not a 2-3 month euphoric blowoff — then it rolled over.
- ✗
A doubling effect could send Bitcoin from its current range near $110,000 to as high as $150,000-$170,000 in the short term, with a delayed blowoff / double-cycle structure pushing the peak into a February or March 2026 top.
“Loukas predicts Bitcoin could reach $150,000-$170,000 in the short term, given historical price doubling patterns ... a double cycle blowoff could delay the market peak to February or March 2026, extending the uptrend to 39-41 months.”
$150k-$170k target never reached — high_by_deadline (Mar 31 2026) was only $126,296, and BTC sat at $58,161, no blowoff peak.
- ✓
The current range is the launching pad for the final phase of this 4-year cycle, up to a cycle high in probably the October 2025 time frame.
“briefly but this is the uh the range and a foundation that is being built in my opinion that is going to be the launching pad for the final phase of this current four-year cycle up to a high in probably the October time frame”
Made at $107,030 (Jun 26 2025); BTC reached its cycle high $126,296 on Oct 6 2025 — squarely the predicted October timeframe.
- ✓
Still bullish on the cycle: Bitcoin can push to its 4-year-cycle high later in 2025 or early 2026 (despite trimming a third of the position at $79.5k).
“four-year cycle. I'm still bullish on this cycle. I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or if not even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle. But I want to talk about some of the headwinds we're”
Made at $76,252 (Apr 8 2025); BTC pushed to the cycle high $126,296 on Oct 6 2025, squarely in the late-2025 window.
- ✓
The 4-year cycle has not peaked (no evidence at the $110k ATH); the current drop to $87k is a routine weekly-cycle low before the cycle continues higher, implying new highs above $110k ahead.
“experiencing unless you expect or believe that the fouryear cycle has peaked which I do not I don't do not see any evidence of this at the moment we are at or near the bottom of one of the oscillating weekly cycles and this is”
Made at $84,112 (Feb 26 2025) off the $110k ATH; BTC made a new cycle high $126,296 (Oct 6 2025), clearing $110k.
- ✗
He does not think this correction takes Bitcoin down to the ~$73k March-2024 high retest level — that would be too extreme.
“also fall back into the 70s coming back to tag the high a year ago March 2024 which was also the weekly cycle high back in March and that one is down at 73 I think that's a little too extreme I don't think we get down to that level”
BTC fell to $60,001 in [2025-02-26..2026-02-26], below the $73,000 floor.
- ✓
Bitcoin is now in the raging-bull third year of the 4-year cycle — the phase where the majority of the cycle's gains are made.
“since the last video only last month I think on the 10th and that's of course because we're now in the Raging Bull phase of the fouryear cycle no doubt zero doubt whatsoever this is pretty much what we've been waiting for this”
Made at $94,393 (Nov 20 2024); BTC broke $100k in Dec 2024 and reached $126,296 (Oct 2025) — the raging-bull leg delivered the cycle's gains.
- ✓
The most bullish period of this 4-year cycle lies directly ahead — the 8-month consolidation is setting up the next expansion phase.
“talk about this being right now right here the most bullish period in this fouryear cycle that's coming directly ahead so with that let's get into the video and just essentially I'm just going to sort of just free”
Made at $60,280 (Oct 10 2024); BTC broke out within weeks to above $100k by Dec 2024 — the expansion phase arrived.
- ✓
I see no reason to doubt the 4-Year Cycle high is still ahead in mid/late 2025, at a 6-digit print.
“I see no reason to doubt the 4-Year Cycle high is still ahead in mid/late 2025, at a 6-digit print.”
4-year-cycle high in mid/late 2025 at a 6-digit print: high_by_deadline (Dec 31 2025) was $126,296, a six-figure cycle top within the window.
- ✗
Bulls might need to wait through until the Dec weekly cycle low, a 9-month range — significant price action may not materialize until mid-September at the earliest, with range-bound trading extending into December.
“Bulls might need to wait through until the Dec weekly cycle low, a 9-month range.”
Predicted range-bound trading into Dec 2024; instead BTC broke out post-election, rallying from $58,691 to $108,389 by deadline — not a 9-month range.
- ✓
The mid-2024 dip is a mid-cycle reaccumulation zone building the base for the second half of the rising 4-year cycle through late 2024 into 2025.
“but I think this is just a reaccumulation Zone and I believe we're building a solid base from which the next portion or the second half of the rising portion of this cycle will be built on and then I just again on the”
Made at $65,153 (Jun 18 2024); after consolidation BTC reached $100k (Dec 2024) and $126,296 (Oct 2025).
- ◐
Bitcoin is at a ceiling of $18k in December 2022 with little upside expected until early January.
“$BTC completely decoupled. In its own world of hurt. DCG/Genesis issues still to resolve. Luckily, the Four Year Cycle wants to end, but the cleansing needs to complete. All other pieces in place. I expect little until early Jan. $18k seems like a ceiling for now.”
BTC nudged to $18,385 in [2022-12-02..2023-01-05] — a minor break (within 2.1%) of the $18,000 ceiling.
- ✓
Bitcoin either found its 4-year cycle low in November 2022 or will find it around the next 60-day cycle low near January 5, 2023.
“#bitcoin either found it's bear market (4yr Cycle Low) with this Nov low....or will do so on the next 60-day Cycle low, around the Jan 5th timeframe. Given the contagion and loss of trust with recent events, leaning towards the early Jan lows.”
Cycle low fell in the Nov-2022/Jan-5-2023 window — low_by_deadline $15,993 held as the floor; BTC never traded lower afterward.
- ✗
If Bitcoin closes above $50k it will go straight to $60k; if it cannot recover, $40k is the next target; longer-term $100k is not far away.
“#Bitcoin - Close > $50k, going str8 to $60k. Otherwise, if can't climb out here, $40k here we come. Widen focus > $100k not far away. ETH > $10k.”
BTC's high was only $52,100 through the 2022-09-23 horizon; never reached $100,000.
- ✓
Bitcoin is likely to make a new all-time high before the end of October 2021.
“Day 26 of the 60-day #bitcoin Cycle. Consolidating the early Cycle gains. In theory, we need to spend more time (3-5 days) consolidating or a good dip first. That completes the first Half. Either way, new ATH looks in the cards before end of month.”
New ATH before end of Oct 2021 — high_by_deadline $66,999 exceeded the prior ~$64.9k April 2021 ATH within the window.
Open (7)
- ⏳
USD strength will put continued downward pressure on Bitcoin into end of 2026.
“USD putting in its first higher low and high on the Weekly Cycle in a very long time. Possible major bottom. Would suggest more pressure for precious metals and bitcoin into end of year. Stocks don't care, for now,”
USD-pressure-into-end-2026 (deadline 2026-12-31) not elapsed; BTC slipped $64,223 to $63,599, consistent but unresolved.
- ⏳
Bitcoin's cycle price low may already be in, but it will need 3-5 months of sideways base-building before the next cycle can launch.
“The Bitcoin low could be in for the cycle, price wise only. Doesn't need deeper. But I'd argue strongly it's going to need 3-5 months (sideways) to build a base from which the next Cycle can launch from.”
3-5 month sideways base-building (into ~Sep-Nov 2026) has not elapsed.
- ⏳
The 4-year-cycle low is not yet in; what comes next is the final declining stage of this cycle before the eventual bottom.
“Uh the bottle portfolio makes its first buy action in 3.5 years. Um not because I believe the cycle low is in, but it's an advantageous time to begin”
Final-cycle-low call (deadline 2026-12-31) not resolved; BTC hit $57,718 (Jul 1) and sits $63,599, bottom unconfirmed.
- ⏳
The 4-year-cycle declining phase has months to run — the next cycle-low window is not until ~October 2026, with buying opportunities in the $50ks likely in the coming months.
“aside and focus on the declining phase. Month 39 which means we've now closed more than 3 years. The window for where the next cycle low forms however is technically not until October of this year which is still a long way out from”
Oct-2026 cycle-low window (deadline 2026-10-31) not reached; BTC ground down to $57,718 into the $50ks, consistent, but the low is unconfirmed.
- ⏳
A move to $107,000 for Bitcoin would not be surprising, though it would only mask underlying weakness.
“$107k incoming for Bitcoin would be not be surprising at all. But that only masks the weakness. Still no weekly swing after 8 weeks.”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-13); 2026-10-13 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
The 4-year cycle peaked in October 2025; the period into the next cycle low, due around October 2026, will be mostly a declining period (sold 7 BTC at $90k).
“we've peaked for this cycle and that the period between the high which was October and the period into the low which is due around October time frame is mostly a declining period.”
Declining-into-~Oct-2026-low path (deadline 2026-10-31) not complete; the Oct-2025 top is confirmed and BTC fell to $57,718 — tracking but unresolved.
- ⏳
The top is very likely in for the 4-year cycle (the October 2025 high); a hope rally to come first, then a decline into a lower-priced 2026 cycle low.
“Talk about how I now think the top is very likely in for the four-year cycle. unfortunately. And then before that though, I think there's a hope rally still to come”
BTC never exceeded the Oct-2025 ATH of $126,296 and fell to ~$58k by June 2026 — call tracking correct so far.