Smart Contracter (Bluntz)
Resolved (4)
- ✓
BTC channel could turn into a bear flag if it falters; leaning toward Bitcoin breaking down into a fresh new low, most likely wicking into the major 0.618 Fibonacci level around $51,299.
“Not exactly a fan on this channel on BTC, could easily turn into a bear flag if it falters here ... I'm probably going to be leaning towards Bitcoin eventually breaking down here and pushing down into a fresh new low ... that will most likely wick into this major 0.618 level (around $51,299).”
Predicted breakdown to a fresh new low; BTC did break down from $71,086 to $58,000/$58,161 — direction clearly materialized (the precise $51,299 Fib wick not yet touched, but the breakdown thesis came true).
- ✓
Forecasting BTC to end up at 130-150K (fifth-wave rally), pending further price action; expects a short-term pullback toward $80,000 first before resuming higher.
“forecasting btc to end up at 130-150K atm pending further price action and how much the next few legs extend by. open to revision”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-11-11..2026-07-01], reaching the $130,000 target (within 2.8% — near-miss counted).
- ✓
BTC is in a major Elliott wave-3 rally en route to $106,000, then a wave-4 pullback, then an explosion (wave 5) to $122,000.
“Bluntz suggests that BTC is in the midst of a major wave three rally en route to $106,000 before a wave four pullback and an explosion to $122,000. At the time of the October 30, 2024 article, BTC was worth $72,624.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-10-30..2026-07-01], reaching the $122,000 target.
- ◐
Bitcoin is in a 'max pain' sideways/range-bound chop expected to last roughly until late 2023, trading mostly between ~$17.5k and ~$25k, with a possible sweep of the ~$25k high and a 'sprinkle of capitulation' to a fresh low below $17.5k; he was not expecting either $28k upside or $12k downside to be hit.
“Bluntz predicted Bitcoin would trade sideways for 12 more months within a range-bound environment ... not expecting $28,000 to the upside or $12,000 to the downside ... measured from a tweet posted August 29th.”
Capitulation low below $17.5k did occur ($15,460) and $12k downside was not hit (correct), but the $17.5k-$25k range broke far to the upside — BTC exceeded $28k in 2023 (the level he said wouldn't be hit) and ran toward ~$45k, so the range/chop thesis failed.
Open (1)
- ⏳
Bitcoin is entering a multi-year bear market (bull ran Dec 2022 to Jan 2025) likely lasting into ~2027, and could retrace ~55% from ~$80,000 down to around $36,000.
“Bitcoin could retract by 55% from its current trading level of approximately $80,000, potentially falling to around $36,000 ... a bear market of similar duration could follow this rise ... this process may extend until 2027.”
Window open until 2027-12-31; after the call BTC first rallied to a new ATH ($126,296) before declining to $58,000/$58,161 — the ~$36k bear-market target is unreached and the multi-year-into-2027 outcome is undetermined.