Benjamin Cowen
Resolved (4)
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In Aug 2025 Cowen projected a Bitcoin cycle top in Q4 2025 in the range of $131,000 to $154,000 (based on halving cycles / market maturity), anticipating a September pullback to the 20-week SMA before the final rally.
“The next Bitcoin peak could fall somewhere between $131,000 and $154,000 ... anticipates a potential September pullback to the 20-week Simple Moving Average before a final rally to the projected top.”
BTC reached $126,296 by the 2025-12-31 horizon — within 3.6% of $131,000 but short.
- ✓
In Nov 2023 Cowen projected Bitcoin could reach over $100,000 by late 2025, with a logarithmic-regression-based peak near $111,000, noting major peaks normally occur in Q4 of the post-halving year and that each cycle high has been ~2.5 log-regression bands lower than the prior (diminishing returns).
“Normally, we've seen these major peaks occur in Q4 of the post-halving year ... Each market cycle high has been two and a half logarithmic regression bands lower than the preceding one ... Bitcoin could reach over $100,000 by the end of 2025 ... peak at around $111,000.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-11-14..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
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In late August 2023 Cowen said there was a 'good chance we see $23,000 BTC in September,' citing September being historically the most bearish month for Bitcoin and 2023 being a pre-halving year (avg Sept return ~ -7%).
“Analyst Benjamin Cowen has revised his earlier prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) would plummet to $23,000 by the end of September ... as of October 1, Bitcoin was trading at around $27,123.”
BTC never hit $23,000 in September 2023 — the Sept low was $24,900 and it closed the window near $27,123; the $23K call did not come true.
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In January 2022, with BTC tumbling, Cowen called $30,000 a major area / potential floor and described a 'full-on worst-case scenario' that would put Bitcoin around $20,000 (while declining to call $30k an absolute bottom).
“Clearly $30,000 is a big area as well. I don't want to say there's necessarily an absolute floor ... a 'full-on worst-case scenario' would put Bitcoin around $20,000.”
$30K was not a floor and even the 'worst-case' ~$20K was breached — BTC bottomed at $15,460 (Nov 2022), below both cited levels.
Open (3)
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Across early-to-mid 2026 Cowen maintained that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is NOT dead: the cycle topped in Q4 (Oct 2025) right on historical schedule (~day 1,162 after the prior bottom), and his base case is a cyclical low in October 2026 (~one year after the top, matching the 2014/2018/2022 midterm-year pattern).
“this cycle has not deviated much from past patterns ... the cycle's peak occurred on day 1,162 after the prior bottom ... His base scenario projects a bottom in October 2026.”
Two-part timing call: the Q4-2025 top is consistent with the facts (high_by_deadline only $74,462, far under the prior $126k ATH), but the predicted Oct-2026 bottom window (deadline 2026-10-31) has NOT elapsed as of 2026-06-30 and price is still falling ($58,161), so the bottom-timing is undetermined.
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On Apr 11, 2026 Cowen warned the bottom is not yet in, assigning ~75% probability the cyclical low is still ahead, pointing to October 2026 as the most likely timeframe and a balance-price target near $39,000 (BTC historically touching both realized price ~$54k and balance price ~$39k at cycle bottoms).
“maintains a 75% probability that the low is still ahead ... every cycle bottom has involved Bitcoin touching both levels (realized price around $54,000 and balance price near $39,000) ... October 2026 ... the most likely timeframe for a cycle bottom.”
Window open (deadline 2026-10-31, as_of 2026-06-30); 'bottom not yet in / low still ahead' is tracking so far (price fell $73,086→$58,161) but the Oct-2026 / ~$39k target is undetermined and the $39k level ($39k vs low $58,000) has not been touched.
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On Dec 30, 2025 Cowen declared Bitcoin 'officially in a bear market' and said 2026 would be a bear-market year with no new all-time highs: 'I do think it's a bear market year. I don't think that Bitcoin is going to be hitting all-time highs in 2026.'
“I do think it's a bear market year. I don't think that Bitcoin is going to be hitting all-time highs in 2026.”
Full-2026 window still open (as_of 2026-06-30); bear thesis is tracking (BTC fell $88,398 to $58,161 with H1 high $97,964 well under the $126,296 ATH), but 'no new ATH in 2026' can't be finalized until year-end.