Benjamin Cowen
Resolved (4)
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In Aug 2025 Cowen projected a Bitcoin cycle top in Q4 2025 in the range of $131,000 to $154,000 (based on halving cycles / market maturity), anticipating a September pullback to the 20-week SMA before the final rally.
“The next Bitcoin peak could fall somewhere between $131,000 and $154,000 ... anticipates a potential September pullback to the 20-week Simple Moving Average before a final rally to the projected top.”
BTC reached $126,296 by the 2025-12-31 horizon — within 3.6% of $131,000 but short.
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In Nov 2023 Cowen projected Bitcoin could reach over $100,000 by late 2025, with a logarithmic-regression-based peak near $111,000, noting major peaks normally occur in Q4 of the post-halving year and that each cycle high has been ~2.5 log-regression bands lower than the prior (diminishing returns).
“Normally, we've seen these major peaks occur in Q4 of the post-halving year ... Each market cycle high has been two and a half logarithmic regression bands lower than the preceding one ... Bitcoin could reach over $100,000 by the end of 2025 ... peak at around $111,000.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2023-11-14..2025-12-31], reaching the $100,000 target.
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In late August 2023 Cowen said there was a 'good chance we see $23,000 BTC in September,' citing September being historically the most bearish month for Bitcoin and 2023 being a pre-halving year (avg Sept return ~ -7%).
“Analyst Benjamin Cowen has revised his earlier prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) would plummet to $23,000 by the end of September ... as of October 1, Bitcoin was trading at around $27,123.”
BTC never hit $23,000 in September 2023 — the Sept low was $24,900 and it closed the window near $27,123; the $23K call did not come true.
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In January 2022, with BTC tumbling, Cowen called $30,000 a major area / potential floor and described a 'full-on worst-case scenario' that would put Bitcoin around $20,000 (while declining to call $30k an absolute bottom).
“Clearly $30,000 is a big area as well. I don't want to say there's necessarily an absolute floor ... a 'full-on worst-case scenario' would put Bitcoin around $20,000.”
$30K was not a floor and even the 'worst-case' ~$20K was breached — BTC bottomed at $15,460 (Nov 2022), below both cited levels.
Open (8)
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Buying Bitcoin below $60k will probably work out fine over the long term (i.e., BTC will eventually recover above $60k).
“I I do think long term buying Bitcoin below 60K is is probably again not financial advice, but buying Bitcoin below 60K will probably work out fine over the long term.”
Long-term 'works out fine above $60k' call; made 2026-07-01 near $60k, BTC $63,599 on 2026-07-06, but the long-term horizon has not elapsed.
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A larger stock-market drop later in 2026 will likely lead to Bitcoin putting in its market-cycle bottom later in the year.
“But later in the year, I think you'll have a larger drop in the stock market that will then kind of help reset things, likely lead to Bitcoin putting in a market cycle bottom.”
H2-2026 cycle-bottom prediction (deadline 2026-12-31) not elapsed.
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Most likely path: Bitcoin forms a low early in summer 2026, gets a countertrend rally mid-to-late summer, then a final drop into the market-cycle bottom in late Q3/early Q4 2026.
“would be Bitcoin forms a low early in the summer, countertrend rally mid to late summer, with a final drop like late Q3, early Q4. Something like that would make the most amount of sense to me.”
Late-Q3/early-Q4-2026 bottom window (deadline 2026-12-31) not elapsed; BTC $63,599 on 2026-07-06.
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Bitcoin will likely drop below its realized price (~$53k) at some point this bear market, as it has in every prior cycle bottom.
“Last cycle, we dropped below the realized price in June. So, we're in that window where it's likely going to happen. And notice that the realized price is down at around 53K. So it seems likely that at some point Bitcoin would”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-06-25); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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Bitcoin will likely fall below its realized price (~low-$50ks) at some point later in 2026, as in prior bear markets.
“and so, for me it makes me think that, all right, well, we we likely will go below it at some point later on this year. I don't know exactly when, but it seems like a a likely outcome.”
Below-realized-price (~low-$50ks) in 2026 (deadline 2026-12-31) open; 2026 low only $57,718 (Jul 1), the low-$50ks untouched.
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Across early-to-mid 2026 Cowen maintained that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is NOT dead: the cycle topped in Q4 (Oct 2025) right on historical schedule (~day 1,162 after the prior bottom), and his base case is a cyclical low in October 2026 (~one year after the top, matching the 2014/2018/2022 midterm-year pattern).
“this cycle has not deviated much from past patterns ... the cycle's peak occurred on day 1,162 after the prior bottom ... His base scenario projects a bottom in October 2026.”
Oct-2026 cyclical-low prediction (deadline 2026-10-31) not reached; the Q4-2025 top is confirmed but the bottom timing remains open.
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On Apr 11, 2026 Cowen warned the bottom is not yet in, assigning ~75% probability the cyclical low is still ahead, pointing to October 2026 as the most likely timeframe and a balance-price target near $39,000 (BTC historically touching both realized price ~$54k and balance price ~$39k at cycle bottoms).
“maintains a 75% probability that the low is still ahead ... every cycle bottom has involved Bitcoin touching both levels (realized price around $54,000 and balance price near $39,000) ... October 2026 ... the most likely timeframe for a cycle bottom.”
Oct-2026 / ~$39k target (deadline 2026-10-31) not reached; 'low still ahead' tracking (BTC fell to $57,718) but $39k untouched.
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On Dec 30, 2025 Cowen declared Bitcoin 'officially in a bear market' and said 2026 would be a bear-market year with no new all-time highs: 'I do think it's a bear market year. I don't think that Bitcoin is going to be hitting all-time highs in 2026.'
“I do think it's a bear market year. I don't think that Bitcoin is going to be hitting all-time highs in 2026.”
2026 bear-year / no-new-ATH call: window (2026-12-31) open; bear thesis tracking (2026 high $97,964 well under $126,296, BTC $63,599) but not finalizable until year-end.