Axel Adler Jr
Resolved (5)
- ◐
Per the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, Bitcoin only truly enters a mid- to long-term bottoming phase if it falls to the critical ~$59,000 level (lower boundary ~$47K, Realized Price Alive ~$59K); the process is estimated to take about six months and depends on the return of long-term real demand, not sentiment-driven rebounds.
“Bitcoin would need to fall to the key level of $59,000 before a mid- to long-term bottom could form ... the core factor driving market stabilization is not emotional recovery or local rebounds, but rather the return of long-term real demand.”
BTC did fall to the critical ~$59K level (low $58,000, now $58,161 from $78,682), but the mid/long-term bottom-forming thesis remains unconfirmed — it's sitting at the level, not clearly bottomed or recovered.
- ✓
If Bitcoin breaks below the ~$67,675 support, the $54K-$58K zone comes back into play.
“Bitcoin is $1,000 away from its most important support level of the cycle. -44.8% drawdown. $67,675 is the line. Hold = recovery scenario intact. Break = $54-58K back on the table.”
BTC broke below the $67,675 support (from $71,910) and the $54K-$58K zone came back into play — low $58,000, currently trading at $58,161, right at the predicted band.
- ✓
Bitcoin is set up for a Santa rally (year-end upward move) given a bullish regime and buyer-favorable asymmetry.
“BTC is entering a window for a Santa rally: the Regime Score is bullish but not overheated. Short liquidations are reinforcing the asymmetry in favor of buyers.”
Year-end Santa rally materialized: BTC rose from $88,557 to a high of $90,542 by the 2026-01-01 deadline — an upward year-end move.
- ✓
No clear obstacles prevent Bitcoin from staging a year-end Santa rally (upward move).
“The macro backdrop also looks constructive, with no clear obstacles preventing BTC from staging a Santa rally. Both the morning brief and yesterday’s report point to this scenario.”
Santa rally played out as forecast — BTC climbed from $88,557 to $90,542 by year-end with no breakdown (low by deadline $86,350).
- ✓
The 'Peak Flag' late-cycle signal (triggered when BTC spot price is roughly 11x the long-term-holder realized price) could appear between October and November 2025, marking the final phase of the bull cycle, provided it coincides with a wave of experienced-holder selling and a spike in volatility that begins to fade.
“Based on the current trajectory, Adler estimated that this signal could appear between October and November 2025, provided it coincides with a wave of experienced holder selling and a spike in volatility that eventually begins to fade.”
Predicted a late-cycle 'Peak Flag' top signal in Oct-Nov 2025; BTC peaked at $126,296 within that window and rolled over (low by Nov-30 deadline $80,525), marking the cycle top as called.
Open (3)
- ⏳
The $100K level will act as a wall of resistance for Bitcoin.
“$100K Level to Become a Wall of Resistance ☕️Morning Brief #83 👇”
BTC's high was $97,176, stayed at/below $100,000 (through 2026-07-01).
- ⏳
Based on the MVRV oscillator over the last ~4 years, when MVRV reaches 2.75 it marks an early inflection point where long-term holders begin taking profits; per Adler's model that level now corresponds to a Bitcoin price of approximately $130,900 (the first selling-pressure point).
“Onchain analyst Axel Adler Jr. ... Historically, when the MVRV hits 2.75, it signals an early inflection point where long-term holders begin to take profits. According to Adler's current model, that level now corresponds to a Bitcoin price of $130,900.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-14); 2026-07-14 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bull (optimistic) case: if the momentum ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it, NUPL/MVRV metrics will show a new impulse and the price could reach $150-175K, repeating the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021.
“If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it, the NUPL/MVRV metrics will show a new impulse, and the price could reach $150-175K”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-06); 2027-11-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.