Arthur Hayes
Resolved (20)
- ◐
Arthur Hayes (Maelstrom) believes Bitcoin has likely bottomed at $60,000 and will turn constructive on risk going forward.
“I think that on balance, Bitcoin probably bottomed at $60k. And myself and Maelstrom will turn a bit more constructive on risk going forward.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-06-13..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
- ✗
Asked if the bottom is in and Bitcoin is back in a bull market (he had written the bull market started when the U.S. bombed Iran), Hayes affirms: yes, the bottom is in and we are back in a Bitcoin bull market.
“But I read your piece recently, and you said that the bull market started when the U.S. bombed Iran. So do you think the bottom is in now and we're back in a bull market for Bitcoin? Yes, I do. And I think that there is an AI fear for deflation.”
Affirmed 'bottom is in, back in a bull market' from $75,444; instead BTC fell to $58,000 and sits at $58,161 below the call price — no bottom and no bull market.
- ✗
Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin price will go up because the new Fed chair Warsh will pursue money creation and lower rates, expanding the Fed's balance sheet.
“Warris is going to do what Trump wants to do, which is more money creation, lower rates. And that's what's going to happen. And what does that mean for Bitcoin? Right. Number go up.”
Predicted 'number go up' on Warsh-driven money creation from $81,079; instead BTC fell to $58,161 (high since only $82,066), the opposite of the directional call.
- ✓
Arthur Hayes would not buy Bitcoin today and is waiting for a large central-bank money-printing event as the catalyst before turning bullish.
“would you take a unit of fiat today and put it into Bitcoin? I would say no, because I still believe that we're waiting for that big print event.”
Said he would not buy, waiting for the big print event; from $71,798 BTC fell to $58,161 — staying out was vindicated by the subsequent decline.
- ◐
In a Feb 18, 2026 essay, Hayes warned that an AI-driven credit shock could push Bitcoin further down — potentially below $60,000 as political dysfunction delays the Fed — but that the eventual money-printing response would pump Bitcoin off its lows to new all-time highs (above the ~$126,000 prior peak).
“bitcoin could fall further before the Fed acts, potentially breaking below $60,000 as political dysfunction delays the central bank's response ... the surge in fiat credit creation pumps Bitcoin decisively off its lows.”
From $66,420 BTC did break below $60,000 (low $58,000) as warned, but the second leg — pump off the lows to new ATHs above ~$126k — has not occurred (current $58,161, high since only $82,814).
- ✗
In a Dec 19, 2025 essay, Hayes argued the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) programme is 'QE in disguise' and that once the market recognizes this Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and push toward $200,000 (by ~March 2026).
“As the market equates RMP to QE, Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000.”
BTC's high was only $97,964 through the 2026-03-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
On the Milk Road Show (Nov 26, 2025) Hayes said Bitcoin's drop from ~$125,000 to ~$80,000 was the bottom of the cycle — a liquidity-driven reset (~$1T drained from dollar money markets Jul-Nov), not a new bear market — and that dollar liquidity had bottomed and would only rise from here.
“All we know is that we have essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart and the direction in the future is higher.”
The ~$80K 'cycle bottom' was breached — BTC fell to $58,000 (current $58,161), well below, after only a brief bounce to $97,964.
- ✗
BTC bottom is near but requires patience — wait for US stock markets to fall before accumulating.
“$BTC undershooting decline in $ liq. Bottom is near, but be patient before blowing your load. Wait for US stonks to puke as well. We are playing for more money printing, and for that we need AI tech stocks to crater.”
Said 'bottom is near' from $85,069; BTC instead fell further to $58,000 and sits at $58,161, well below — the bottom was not near.
- ✗
On X (Oct 6 / Oct 9, 2025) promoting his essay 'Long Live the King!', Hayes argued the four-year Bitcoin/crypto cycle is dead and 'doesn't apply this time' — i.e. no classic late-2025 cycle top and bear market.
““Long Live the King!” an essay on why the $BTC 4yr cycle is dead. https://t.co/7RldfQVqT5”
Claimed the 4-year cycle is dead / no late-2025 top and bear; instead BTC topped near the made-on date ($123,822 high) and fell ~52% to $58,000 — a classic cycle top and bear played out.
- ✓
On X (Aug 2, 2025) Hayes turned cautious, arguing that with the US tariff bill coming due in Q3 and no major economy creating credit fast enough, Bitcoin would pull back and test $100,000 (and ETH test $3,000).
“Y? US Tariff bill coming due in 3q … at least the mrkt believes that after NFP print. No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal gdp. So $BTC tests $100k, $ETH tests $3k. Come see my @WebX_Asia Tokyo keynote Aug 25 for more info. Back to the beach. https://t.co/zuHlwgQKC7”
Said BTC would pull back to test $100k from $112,543; BTC subsequently fell well through $100k (low $58,000), so the $100k test was met.
- ✗
In his July 22, 2025 essay 'Time Signature', Hayes reiterated a year-end target of Bitcoin $250,000 and Ether $10,000 by 31 December 2025, driven by a Western fiat 'credit geyser'.
“Bitcoin $250,000 and Ether $10,000 by 31 December 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000.
- ✗
BTC trading below $100k might be the last opportunity to buy at that level before it goes higher.
“Seriously fam, this might be the last chance you have to buy $BTC < $100k 😉😉😉😉. New essay drops this week about The BBC Bazooka, treasury buy backs.”
BTC fell to $80,525 in [2025-04-21..2026-01-21], below the $100,000 floor.
- ✗
In his April 1, 2025 essay 'The BBC', Hayes argued the Fed's pivot from QT to QE on Treasuries meant Bitcoin had already bottomed at a local low of ~$76,500 and would now climb to $250,000 by year-end 2025.
“If my analysis of the Fed's major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $250,000.
- ◐
$77k was probably the cycle bottom for BTC.
“Was $BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.”
BTC dipped to $74,421 in [2025-03-20..2025-12-20] — a minor break (within 3.3%) of the $77,000 floor.
- ✗
BTC will likely bottom around $70k — a 36% correction from the $110k ATH — before resuming its bull run.
“Be fucking patient. $BTC likely bottoms around $70k. 36% correction from $110k ATH, v normal for a bull market. Then we need stonks, $SPX and $NDX to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under. THEN we get Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ all easing to make”
BTC fell to $60,001 in [2025-03-11..2026-03-11], below the $70,000 floor.
- ✗
On X (March 10, 2025) Hayes called a likely local bottom for Bitcoin around $70,000, framing a drop from the ~$110k ATH as a normal ~36% bull-market correction and advising buyers to 'load up the truck' once central banks ease.
“BTC likely bottoms around $70K. 36% correction from $110K ATH, v normal for a bull market.”
$70K was not the bottom — BTC subsequently fell to $58,000, well below the called local low.
- ✗
On X (Jan 23, 2024) promoting his essay 'Yellen or Talkin'?', Hayes said the BTC slump signalled a TradFi mini-financial crisis and that Bitcoin would bottom in the $30,000 to $35,000 range.
“"Yellen or Talkin'?" is an essay on why I think the $BTC slump is pointing to a TradFi mini-financial crisis, and it will bottom in the $30k to $35k range. https://t.co/uwiLscKwzW https://t.co/zRpUcE6TIz”
Predicted a BTC bottom in $30k-$35k; from $39,878 BTC never traded below ~$38,501 and instead rallied to $126,296 — it never reached the called $30-35k bottom zone.
- ◐
On X (Nov 10, 2023) Hayes declared the bull market had arrived ('The time is now!') and to YOLO, with long-run targets of BTC $1mm and ETH $100k.
“This summer I visited the ancestors in Rapa Nui and I asked them when the bull market would arrive? They told me to be patient, read the words of the Lord, and I would know when to YOLO. The time is now! $BTC = $1mm $ETH = $100k Yachtzee bitches!!! https://t.co/ufV9nthSDg”
Called the bull market 'now' from $37,325 and BTC did rally hard (high $126,296), so the directional bull-market call was right, but the $1mm BTC / $100k ETH targets are nowhere near met.
- ✓
On X (Nov 8, 2022, post-FTX collapse) Hayes warned that the FTX/Alameda blowup was crypto's 'Lehman' moment and that it was NOT the bottom — invoking the S&P's 666 low in March 2009, he said BTC could fall to ~$17,500.
“FTX = Lehman That wasn’t the bottom. $SPX hit 666 in March of 2009. Therefore $17,500 BTC is at risk. How ‘bout dem puts now…”
Warned $17,500 BTC 'at risk' / not the bottom from $18,550; BTC fell to a low of $15,460 after the call, reaching below $17,500 as warned.
- ✓
In his Jan 7, 2022 essay 'Maelstrom', Hayes said he was short-term bearish and that Bitcoin could trade below $30,000 (and Ether below $2,000) within a three-to-six month horizon as rising rates and a flattening Fed balance sheet force speculators to dump crypto; he added that at or below $20,000 BTC he would question whether crypto can preserve value.
“I believe that Bitcoin could trade below $30,000 and Ether below $2,000 in a three-to-six month time horizon. ... If Bitcoin trades at or below $20,000 or Ether trades at or below $1,400, then I will start to wonder whether these cryptos can preserve their value in energy terms.”
Within the 3-6mo horizon BTC traded to a $17,567 low by the 2022-07-07 deadline — below $30K (and below his $20K marker).
Open (9)
- ⏳
Arthur Hayes says the Bitcoin cycle recovery will take longer than skeptics claim but happen sooner than most expect.
“I think it'll take longer than the Fudsters say it will, but it'll happen sooner than we think. It's just math.”
Claim commits to Bitcoin price recovering and making new highs on a timeline sooner than consensus expects, with no specific date or price level given.
- ⏳
Arthur Hayes gives an end-of-year Bitcoin price target of approximately $125,000, driven by digital credit liquidity.
“I think my end of year choice target is like $125,000, whatever. It doesn't fucking matter how long anyways.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-04-28); 2026-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Arthur Hayes does not expect Bitcoin to recover to $100k in the near term, as the AI-driven deflation problem must first be resolved before a new Bitcoin bull run can begin.
“does Bitcoin go to 100,000 just because the war ended? I don't think so. I think we still have this AI issue.”
BTC's high was $82,814, stayed at/below $100,000 (through 2026-07-01).
- ⏳
BTC will reach $1 million.
“Run it fucking hot! If you ain't long you is wrong! $BTC to $1m”
Not reached yet (high $97,964 since 2026-01-08); 2030-01-08 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
In a July 2025 essay/interview, Hayes laid out a long-dated thesis that fiscal-led liquidity waves and stablecoin/Treasury dynamics could see Bitcoin pump ~10x to $1 million by 2028 (with the Nasdaq 100 at ~100,000).
“You will miss out on bitcoin pumping 10x to $1 million or the Nasdaq 100 spiking 5x to 100,000 by 2028.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-12); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Capital controls will drive BTC to $1 million and beyond by 2028.
“"Fatty Fatty Boom Boom" argues that capital controls will be used instead of tariffs to correct Pax Americana's imbalances. The effects on foreign asset ownership will drive $BTC to $1 million and beyond by 2028.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-15); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
On X (Apr 22, 2025) promoting his essay 'Ski Cut', Hayes argued the Treasury buy-back ('the BBC's new toy') would send Bitcoin through $110,000 and onwards to $200,000.
“In my essay "Ski Cut" I discuss the BBC's new toy, the treasury buy back, and why it will send $BTC through $110k onwards to $200k. https://t.co/sAavSpeAFQ https://t.co/txlcclAMyb”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-04-22); 2027-04-22 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
BTC will reach $1 million due to yield curve control and money printing dynamics triggered by the bank term funding program.
“"Kaiseki" is an essay about how the #banktermfundingprogram is Yield Curve Control by another name. Get ready for infinite money printing and $BTC $1 million.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2023-03-16); 2028-03-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
BTC will reach $1 million due to the end of the Petro/Eurodollar regime and energy price dynamics.
“What happens when you "cancel" the world's largest energy producer ... ? "Energy Cancelled" is an essay on why the post-1971 Petro / Eurodollar regime died on 26 February 2022. Are you ready for $1 million #Bitcoin and $10,000 #Gold?”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2022-03-16); 2027-03-16 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.