apsk32
Resolved (6)
- ◐
Bitcoin likely has not yet found the bottom, and even if it has, prices will remain low for months.
“I assign a high probability to the event that we haven't found the bottom yet, and even if we have, that prices will stay low for months.”
A lower low ($58,000 < $70,279) confirmed the bottom wasn't in, but the intervening rally to $82,814 (+18%) contradicts 'prices will stay low for months.'
- ✗
Bitcoin could peak near $200,000 by November or December (2025) if the current cycle stays on track; open-minded to a cycle peak well above $200,000.
“Bitcoin could peak near $200,000 by November or December if the current cycle stays on track”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
If the four-year pattern continues, Bitcoin could be between $200,000 and $300,000 by Christmas (2025), before bullish momentum begins to fade at the start of 2026.
“Bitcoin could be between $200,000 and $300,000 by Christmas, before the bullish momentum begins to fade at the start of 2026.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-25 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4 (2025), based on Bitcoin power curve time contours overlaying the 2013/2017/2021/2025 four-year cycles.
“Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4. Gold suggests we could go significantly higher.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin will surge to over $200,000 before the end of 2025.
“In a parallel commentary, he predicted a surge to over $200,000 before the end of 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
We're 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025. (Stated in a July 9, 2024 X post when BTC was ~$58,000, implying a ~$230,000 target.)
“We're 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025.”
4x from ~$58K (~$232K) never came close by 2025-12-31 — high by deadline was only $126,296 (~2.2x).
Open (4)
- ⏳
Fresh lows below current levels are possible this cycle; mid-to-low $50k range would not be surprising.
“The bulk of the (few) samples below our current level happened during the last bear market. This keeps me open minded to fresh lows this cycle. Mid to low 50's would not shock me.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-03-27); 2028-09-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
The $50k range is a reasonable buy target; BTC could dip into the $40s but that is less likely.
“Being patient with my buys. Hunting in the $50k range. Could we get into the 40s or even lower? Sure, but I'll run out of cash before that happens.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-02-23); 2027-02-23 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will find its cycle bottom well before the end of 2026, consistent with the ~4-year cycle pattern.
“Previous major lows were ~4 years apart. End of 2014, 2018, 2022. At our current rate, we'll find the bottom well before the end of 2026.”
'Bottom well before end of 2026' window (deadline 2026-12-31) open; price is currently at the lows ($58,000-$58,161), bottom not yet confirmed.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will be worth more than $1,000,000 in the 2030s; the power-law support line passes $1,000,000 around 2036. If BTC trades ~5 years ahead of support it could hit $1M by January 2031; the absolute latest is by 2036.
“The graph shows that if Bitcoin trades five years ahead of the support, it could hit $1 million by January 2031. However, the absolute latest for the premier asset to rally over 1,121% from its current price to $1 million is by January 2036.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-31); 2036-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.