apsk32
Resolved (17)
- ◐
Bitcoin likely has not yet found the bottom, and even if it has, prices will remain low for months.
“I assign a high probability to the event that we haven't found the bottom yet, and even if we have, that prices will stay low for months.”
A lower low ($58,000 < $70,279) confirmed the bottom wasn't in, but the intervening rally to $82,814 (+18%) contradicts 'prices will stay low for months.'
- ✓
Calling a bottom in Bitcoin at late-September 2025 prices.
“You're calling top while I'm calling bottom. We are not the same. https://t.co/HVsBKlXQOO”
Called a bottom at $113,348 (Sep 24 2025); BTC rallied to the $126,296 ATH within ~2 weeks (Oct 6) — right direction, materially, within horizon.
- ✗
Bitcoin at $150k or higher by December 19, 2025.
“Bags packed; I'm bullish. $150k+ by December 19th. Send it.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-19 horizon; never reached $150,000.
- ✗
Past cycles suggest Bitcoin at $200,000+ in 2025.
“Bitcoin just locked in its highest weekly close. Past cycles suggest $200,000+ in 2025. https://t.co/gl0RyhVhHL”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin could peak near $200,000 by November or December (2025) if the current cycle stays on track; open-minded to a cycle peak well above $200,000.
“Bitcoin could peak near $200,000 by November or December if the current cycle stays on track”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
If the four-year pattern continues, Bitcoin could be between $200,000 and $300,000 by Christmas (2025), before bullish momentum begins to fade at the start of 2026.
“Bitcoin could be between $200,000 and $300,000 by Christmas, before the bullish momentum begins to fade at the start of 2026.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-25 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin reaches $200,000+ by Christmas 2025.
“Bitcoin to $200,000+ by Christmas. https://t.co/FQUJ2EX35y”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-25 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin's 2025 base case is about $210,000, with openness to much higher.
“Bitcoin has a (power) relationship with gold. Gold ripped. For the relationship to hold, Bitcoin must also rip. ~$210,000 is still my 2025 base case, but I'm open to numbers much higher. Nothing in the blue stripe would surprise me. https://t.co/meOzEebdkW”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $210,000.
- ◐
Bitcoin will have an amazing Q3 and Q4 in 2025.
“I paused my Bitcoin DCA today. In 2024, that's what I said I would do if price went above $100,000 and I'm sticking to the plan. I'm confident that Bitcoin will have an amazing Q3 & Q4, but nothing this cycle has convinced me that "this time is different." Altcoins look like https://t.co/2ViuhogfHh”
Q3 2025 was strong (ATH-at-the-time $124,533 on Aug 14) but Q4 collapsed from $118,660 (Oct 1) to $87,498 (Dec 31) after the $126,296 top — only half 'amazing'.
- ✗
Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4 (2025), based on Bitcoin power curve time contours overlaying the 2013/2017/2021/2025 four-year cycles.
“Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4. Gold suggests we could go significantly higher.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Bitcoin will surge to over $200,000 before the end of 2025.
“In a parallel commentary, he predicted a surge to over $200,000 before the end of 2025.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
The bitcoin/gold model puts Bitcoin's floor price at $85,200.
“The bitcoin/gold model is screaming HISTORIC LOWS. Floor price: $85,200. https://t.co/vFpjvAz1tM”
BTC fell to $60,001 in [2025-03-21..2026-03-21], below the $85,200 floor.
- ✗
Bitcoin's power-law trendline points to $200,000+ in Q4 2025 and $1,000,000+ in the early 2030s.
“Bitcoin's 14-year power law trendline still points to $200,000+ in Q4 2025 and $1,000,000+ in the early 2030s. https://t.co/bBxjxPKaqr”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ✗
Even with months of chop around $95k, Bitcoin reaches $200k+ in November 2025.
“Bitcoin could chop around $95k for four or five months and I'd still expect $200k+ in November. The pattern is very much intact. Get comfortable. Touch grass. https://t.co/50x4CJmLnE”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-11-30 horizon; never reached $200,000.
- ◐
The 4-year cycle is intact and 2025 is a green year, with Bitcoin heading higher.
“Scared money doesn't make money. The 4-year cycle is still intact, and we've just entered a green year. Higher. https://t.co/OsQEqf6ZwL”
BTC did head higher to a new ATH $126,296 (Oct 6 2025), but 2025 closed RED at $87,498 vs ~$93,354 open — the explicit 'green year' call failed.
- ✗
Bitcoin could realistically reach $400,000 in 2025 as gold rises and Bitcoin follows.
“tl;dr Gold is rising, and Bitcoin will follow. According to a mathematical model of network growth, Bitcoin could realistically reach $400,000 in 2025. If you own Bitcoin, hold on. -- Modeling Bitcoin's price in US dollars doesn't make a lot of sense when we know the Federal https://t.co/9x8aHDqNiS”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $400,000.
- ✗
We're 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025. (Stated in a July 9, 2024 X post when BTC was ~$58,000, implying a ~$230,000 target.)
“We're 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025.”
4x from ~$58K (~$232K) never came close by 2025-12-31 — high by deadline was only $126,296 (~2.2x).
Open (10)
- ⏳
Fresh lows below current levels are possible this cycle; mid-to-low $50k range would not be surprising.
“The bulk of the (few) samples below our current level happened during the last bear market. This keeps me open minded to fresh lows this cycle. Mid to low 50's would not shock me.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-03-27); 2028-09-27 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
The $50k range is a reasonable buy target; BTC could dip into the $40s but that is less likely.
“Being patient with my buys. Hunting in the $50k range. Could we get into the 40s or even lower? Sure, but I'll run out of cash before that happens.”
Not reached yet (low $57,718 since 2026-02-23); 2027-02-23 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will find its cycle bottom well before the end of 2026, consistent with the ~4-year cycle pattern.
“Previous major lows were ~4 years apart. End of 2014, 2018, 2022. At our current rate, we'll find the bottom well before the end of 2026.”
'Bottom well before end of 2026' window (deadline 2026-12-31) open; 2026 low $57,718 (Jul 1), bottom unconfirmed.
- ⏳
If the power curve holds, Bitcoin's worst-case low is about $55,000, with the floor rising toward $80,000 over the following twelve months.
“If Bitcoin maintains the power curve trendline, then the worst-case scenario is a low around $55,000. The low raises to around $80,000 over the next twelve months. That puts the maximum drawdown between -56% and -37%. Either of these would be significantly smaller than previous https://t.co/XZ7LOER4Ny”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $55,000 (through 2026-07-06).
- ⏳
The run to $200k Bitcoin starts in September 2025.
“I'm a simple man. I see a pattern. I respect the pattern. The run to $200k starts in September. https://t.co/EuBs3EiaRI”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-09-09); 2027-09-09 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Base case of $2,000,000 per Bitcoin within 10 years.
“This is my base case. Somewhere above the power curve. Bouncing between one contour or another. $2,000,000 per Bitcoin within 10 years. https://t.co/0899PPTiVi”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-27); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
One Bitcoin will eventually be worth more than $1,000,000.
“Do you think one Bitcoin will ever be worth more than $1,000,000? I do, and the road there will be beautiful. https://t.co/uJPX7O5LvL”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-05-06); 2029-05-06 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin will be worth more than $1,000,000 in the 2030s; the power-law support line passes $1,000,000 around 2036. If BTC trades ~5 years ahead of support it could hit $1M by January 2031; the absolute latest is by 2036.
“The graph shows that if Bitcoin trades five years ahead of the support, it could hit $1 million by January 2031. However, the absolute latest for the premier asset to rally over 1,121% from its current price to $1 million is by January 2036.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-03-31); 2036-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin reaches $1.4 million in 2033.
“Bitcoin to $1.4M in 2033 https://t.co/0wpElng5ld”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-02-22); 2033-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
- ⏳
Bitcoin reaches $1 million in the early-to-mid 2030s regardless of how the cycles go.
“I don't accept that the cycles will necessarily disappear just because institutions have arrived. We have never been dumped on by institutional flows. This will be a new experience. Regardless of how the cycles go, I still expect $1M Bitcoin early/mid 2030s.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-02-21); 2035-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.