Anthony Pompliano
Resolved (17)
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Anthony Pompliano believes Bitcoin will have a big year in 2026 and expresses hope it returns to its all-time high (~$126k) this year.
“I think it is going to have a pretty big year here. Now, does it mean it's going to go to $300,000? I wouldn't say that, right? But if Bitcoin went back to an all-time high this year, I'd be happy and probably so would you.”
Hoped BTC returns to its ~$126k ATH in 2026; half the year elapsed with a high of only $82,814 and price down at $58,161 — far from ATH and falling, the 'big year' is not materializing. Note: window technically open but trajectory is sharply against it.
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Pompliano expects Bitcoin to go flat to slightly down from current levels and does not expect an 80% drawdown, suggesting the bear market is shallower than prior cycles.
“I think we've got some time here where Bitcoin is going to go kind of flat to down. I don't think that we will get 80% drawdowns. I reserve the right to be wrong.”
Predicted 'flat to down' with no 80% drawdown; from $78,667 BTC fell to $58,000 (~26% from that point, ~54% from ATH) — 'down' was right but the move was a sharp decline, not flat-to-slightly-down, and the floor implied by his thesis broke.
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Pompliano expects Bitcoin's reduced volatility means it should not see the massive 80–90% drawdowns of past cycles, implying a higher structural floor going forward.
“You shouldn't expect Bitcoin to be as parabolic, but you also shouldn't expect it to have the massive 80, 90% drawdowns that we saw in the past either.”
Claimed reduced volatility means no 80-90% drawdowns and a higher structural floor; the drawdown from ATH to $58,000 is ~54% — not the catastrophic 80-90% he warned against, so technically held, but the deep ~54% slide undercuts the 'higher structural floor' framing.
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After a weak end to 2025, Bitcoin's volatility has compressed so much that a 70% or 80% drawdown in 2026 would be very surprising; the lack of a year-end blowoff top may prevent a Q1 2026 crash.
“Given where the volatility is right now, it would be very surprising that Bitcoin's volatility has drastically compressed and yet still could get a 70% or 80% drawdown. … We didn't get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3, or beginning of Q4, but we haven't seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well.”
Predicted a 70-80% drawdown in 2026 would be 'very surprising', but BTC fell from the $126,296 ATH to $58,000 low (~54% drawdown) and price is $58,161 as of 2026-06-30 — a large drawdown materialized within the window, against the thesis of compressed volatility.
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Bitcoin will likely 'grind rather than explode' from here — potentially climbing back toward $100,000-$120,000 over several months or consolidating in the $80,000-$90,000 range, assuming the ~40% drawdown floor holds.
“Bitcoin will 'grind rather than explode,' potentially climbing back toward $100,000-$120,000 over several months or consolidating in the $80,000-$90,000 range, assuming the 40% drawdown floor holds. Bitcoin's historical 70-80% drawdowns came with explosive upside; with volatility now halved, no more blowoff tops, but also no more catastrophic crashes.”
Predicted a grind toward $100k-$120k or consolidation in $80k-$90k assuming a ~40% drawdown floor holds; instead BTC fell to $58,000 (~54% off ATH) and sits at $58,161, breaking the assumed floor and the $80k-$90k consolidation band.
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Bitcoin has not topped for this market cycle and will go much higher, with both Bitcoin and gold heading much higher.
“Both are going much higher. And I don't think it's going to stop anytime soon because we're about to get rate cuts, more money printing.”
Said BTC had not topped and was going 'much higher' and wouldn't stop soon; from $111,248 it topped at $126,296 then collapsed to $58,161 — the cycle top came shortly after and price more than halved, opposite of the claim.
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September 2025 could be a month where Bitcoin goes up rather than down, contrary to its seasonal weakness pattern.
“I explain why maybe I think actually September is going to be a month where we go up instead of down. I give you all of the reasons why.”
September 2025 rose meaningfully: from $111,248 at the call to a $117,998 high by the 9/30 deadline (up, not down).
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Bitcoin will reset in the $105K–$112K range and then move back up; it has not topped for this market cycle.
“I don't know where we'll kind of end up is $110,000, you know, the bottom, $108,000, $105,000, $112,000, like somewhere in this general range, I think that we are going to reset. And then that gives us the ability to move back up.”
BTC fell as low as $57,718 in [2025-08-26..2026-07-01], reaching the $105,000 downside target.
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Bitcoin will trade in the $110K–$125K range for a while before significant buying pushes it higher.
“I think that this range that we're kind of in, call it 125 to maybe 110, will kind of hang out here for a while. But as we see these buyers come into the market...I do not believe has topped in any way for this market cycle.”
Did trade the 110-125 band and push slightly higher to a $126,296 high, but the 'not topped in any way' premise failed — it then crashed to $58,000.
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Bitcoin should 'come back alive again' starting in September; $112k-$113k is pretty oversold. Late-summer corrections often precede rebounds into Q3/Q4 (textbook bull-market behavior). Rejected $400k-$500k this cycle.
“Starting in September, we should see Bitcoin kind of come back alive again. … $113,000 is pretty oversold.”
Predicted Bitcoin comes alive starting September; from $112,480 it rallied to a new ATH of $126,296 by deadline, and rejected $400k-$500k this cycle (never came close). Both legs validated within the 2025-12-31 window.
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Anthony Pompliano expects Bitcoin to reach approximately $150,000 before the end of 2025.
“I could easily see us hitting $150,000 or so before the end of the year. Some people are not excited about that as a return.”
BTC's high was only $126,296 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $150,000.
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Anthony Pompliano predicts Bitcoin will continue rising in price over the coming months, driven by more buyers than sellers.
“There's more buyers than sellers. It's going to continue to go up in price over the coming months.”
From $117,830 it nudged to a $126,296 high but then collapsed to $58,000 (current $58,161) — it did not continue rising over the coming months.
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Bitcoin price will correct within one to three months once late-cycle retail comes in near the peak.
“they're going to come into Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme towards the end of that bull market when the price is really kind of running. And when they come in, they're going to within a month, two months, three months, the price is going to correct.”
After the ~$126,296 peak a major correction followed all the way to $58,000, as predicted.
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Stocks and bitcoin will likely be at all-time highs again before the end of the year (2025); all this noise will quickly be forgotten.
“Stocks and bitcoin will likely be at all-time highs again before the end of the year. All this noise will quickly be forgotten.”
BTC at all-time highs before end of 2025: rallied from $83,174 to a new ATH of $126,296 by the 2025-12-31 deadline.
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New bitcoin all-time high just now. We'll be saying that 'a lot more through the end of 2025' — i.e. BTC will keep printing new all-time highs through the end of 2025.
“New bitcoin all-time high just now. We’ll be saying that a lot more through the end of 2025.”
Predicted continued new ATHs through end of 2025; from $92,436 BTC kept printing highs, reaching $126,296 by 2025-12-31 deadline — new all-time highs occurred through end of 2025 as claimed.
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Bitcoin could reach between $100,000 and $200,000 over the next 12 to 18 months, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the halving; going back to its all-time high is 'pretty much guaranteed'.
“If this continues, that we have 12.5 times more demand… this thing's going back to its all-time high. It's pretty much guaranteed. He recently suggested Bitcoin could reach between $100,000 and $200,000 in the next 12 to 18 months.”
BTC traded as high as $126,296 in [2024-11-12..2026-05-12], reaching the $100,000 target.
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Bitcoin could soon reach $138,000 (CNBC interview), citing historical patterns where BTC roughly doubles within ~18 days after exceeding its prior peak.
“Bitcoin's value has doubled in 18 days or less after three-quarters of it exceeded its previous peak price. … Pompliano suggested Bitcoin could soon reach $138,000.”
BTC's high was only $104,000 through the 2024-12-09 horizon; never reached $138,000.
Open (9)
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The Bitcoin bear market will end sometime in the second half of 2026.
“my best guess is sometime in the second half of this year. And from there, Bitcoin goes back up. And all of a sudden, Bitcoin will rise all the way back to that all-time high.”
Predicted the bear market ends in H2 2026; window runs through 2026-12-31 which has not elapsed (as_of 2026-06-30), and BTC at $58,161 has not yet bottomed-and-recovered — undetermined.
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The Bitcoin bear market will reach its end in the second half of 2026.
“what I am saying is if we look at the historical trends, it suggests that in the second half of this year, we will reach the Bitcoin bear market end.”
H2 2026 window (Jul-Dec, deadline 2026-12-31) has not elapsed as of 2026-06-30; bear-market end undetermined.
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If Bitcoin does not go to zero, it is going to a million at some point — 'Bitcoin has no ceiling because the dollar has no floor.' No timeframe given; admits it is hard to predict when $1M is reached.
“Bitcoin has no ceiling because the dollar has no floor. … while it is easy to judge bitcoin's price, it is difficult to predict when it will reach $1 million.”
$1M long-term call with explicitly no timeframe ('difficult to predict when'); open-ended horizon has not elapsed, BTC is $58,161 — undetermined.
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Anthony Pompliano believes Bitcoin will hit $1 million during our lifetime, compounding at roughly 28% per year over the next decade.
“can Bitcoin hit a million bucks? 100%. And if you said to me, a compound annual growth rate of 28% over the next decade, that doesn't seem crazy. So my guess is during our lifetime, we're going to see Bitcoin hit two commas.”
Not reached yet (high $82,379 since 2026-05-11); 2031-05-11 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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I expect bitcoin to print a new all-time high (made mid-Feb-2026 during the post-ATH drawdown; implies BTC will exceed its $126,296 ATH again). No timeframe given.
“@Kazba22 I expect bitcoin to print a new ATH”
Predicted a new ATH above $126,296 with no timeframe; post-call high only reached $82,814 and BTC is $58,161 — not yet achieved, but open-ended horizon has not elapsed.
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Pompliano predicts Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million, so long as it does not go to zero.
“If bitcoin doesn't go to zero, it's going to $1 million at some point.”
Not reached yet (high $82,814 since 2026-02-18); 2031-02-18 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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Pompliano says it is hard to see Bitcoin going down to $30K–$40K unless there is an exogenous shock or contagion event, implying a soft floor around that range.
“it is hard to see us going down to call it 30K, 40K Bitcoin price, unless there was an exogenous shock. There was some sort of contagion. There was some sort of forced selling in the market because of some sort of issue.”
BTC's low was $57,718, held at/above $30,000 (through 2026-07-01).
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Bitcoin has not topped for this market cycle and will go to approximately $150K in the current bull market.
“Bitcoin's price go from $69,000 in November...all the way up to, let's say, $150,000, which I pretty much have been saying I could see that happening in this bull market.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-08-26); 2028-02-26 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-01.
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If you like bitcoin at $100,000, you're going to love it at $1 million — implies BTC is ultimately headed to $1M (long-term, no timeframe).
“If you like bitcoin at $100,000, you’re going to love it at $1 million.”
$1M long-term destination call with no timeframe; horizon open and undetermined — BTC peaked at $126,296 then fell to $58,161, nowhere near $1M but the call has no expiry.