American HODL
Resolved (15)
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Bitcoin sees a price increase in Q1-Q2 2026 once the four-year-cycle sellers are exhausted.
“So like you, I’m bullish on a Q1, Q2, increase in price. I think that the four year cycle thing, it is dead, but we still have yet to exhaust the four year cycle sellers.”
BTC fell across Q1-Q2 2026, from $88,738 (Jan 1)/$97,964 high (Jan 14) to $58,524 (Jun 30) — a decline, not the predicted increase.
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Bitcoin is at about $131k at year-end 2025 / start of 2026.
“I’ll go 131.”
BTC's high was only $116,410 through the 2025-12-31 horizon; never reached $131,000.
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There will be no Bitcoin bear market; nothing is set up to cause one since the irrational-exuberance phase never happened.
“There wasn’t really a bull market, so I don’t really see any like immutable law of the universe that says there has to be a bear market. And frankly, this irrational exuberance never showed up. Retail never showed up. What’s going to cause the bear market? I don’t see it.”
A bear market did occur: BTC fell 54% from $126,296 (Oct 6 2025) to $57,718 (Jul 1 2026).
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The real story of this period is 'the shattering of the four year cycle' — whether business-cycle or halving-cycle, 'we need to cast that into the trash bin of history'; adds 'this really doesn't feel like a bull market to me in any meaningful sense.'
“The real story is the shattering of the four year cycle, whether it's business cycle related or having cycle that thing, we need to cast that into the trash bin of history. ... This really doesn't feel like a bull market to me in any meaningful sense.”
"Doesn't feel like a bull market" sentiment was borne out as BTC fell from $108,362 to $58,000 (~-46%), but "four-year cycle shattered" is a thesis framing not cleanly resolvable.
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The most likely path is a bull-market expansion leg in Q2 2026.
“I think that the most likely, the most likely thing is that we get this Q2 26 expansion. I agree with Jeff. I think that’s sort of like a consensus view at the moment amongst. Bitcoiners who’ve been here for a while.”
Q2 2026 was a drawdown, not an expansion: fell from $68,112 (Apr 1) to $58,524 (Jun 30), low $58,000 (Jun 25).
- ✓
American HODL believes a Bitcoin bull market will last all throughout 2025.
“I think like we're at the start of a bull market that's going to last all throughout 2025.”
Bull market through 2025: BTC made a new ATH of $126,296 in 2025 and held above entry ($100,151) for much of the year (low by deadline $74,421).
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American HODL expects heavy selling resistance in the $150K-$225K range before a parabolic move in Q4 2025.
“there's going to be a lot of selling in the like, let's say between 150 to 225 range in there. And so that'll be a hard range to get through. But once we break through it, we're going to break through it with force.”
$150K-$225K selling zone before a Q4-2025 parabolic break never reached — BTC topped at $126,296 and the Q4-2025 window elapsed without touching the band.
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American HODL predicts Bitcoin will go parabolic in Q4 2025 (September-December), reaching shocking prices.
“I think the back half of the year, probably, I don't know, September, October, November, December. So basically a year from now is going to be just parabolic, hyperbolic in nature. I mean, we're going to see some really crazy and shocking Bitcoin prices.”
No parabolic/hyperbolic Q4-2025 blow-off: high by 2025-12-31 was $126,296 (~+26% from $100,151), then BTC crashed to $58,000.
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Bitcoin will run into heavy selling in the $150k-$225k range this cycle, then break through it with force.
“there’s going to be a lot of selling in the like, Let’s say between 150 to 225 range in there. And so that’ll be a hard range to get through. But once we break through it, we’re going to break through it with force.”
BTC never reached the $150k-$225k band; cycle top was $126,296 (Oct 6 2025) by the 2025-12-31 deadline.
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The back half of 2025 (Sep-Dec) will be parabolic with 'really crazy and shocking' Bitcoin prices.
“And I think the back half of the year, probably, I don’t know, September, October, November, December. So basically a year from now is going to be just parabolic hyperbolic in nature. I mean, we’re going to see some really crazy and shocking Bitcoin prices.”
Sep-Dec 2025 was not parabolic: a marginal ATH $126,296 (Oct 6) then collapse to $80,525 (Nov 21), closing the period down at $87,498.
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Bitcoin hits $100k by Thanksgiving 2024 (or he eats a pumpkin pie).
“I have promised a hundred K by this Thanksgiving, or I will eat a pumpkin pie and pumpkin pie is disgusting.”
BTC traded as high as $99,860 in [2024-10-02..2024-11-28], reaching the $100,000 target (within 0.1% — near-miss counted).
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This cycle's top will either stall around ~$200k or run toward $1M — i.e., at least ~$200k.
“it’s either going to be one or the other. We’re either going to stick low at like 200 or we’re going to a million.”
Cycle top was $126,296 (Oct 6 2025), never near even the ~$200k floor scenario by the 2025-12-31 deadline.
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Explicitly endorsed Jeff Ross's call made moments earlier: a boring consolidation now, then another parabolic Bitcoin move higher (well above $100k by May 2025).
“I so agree with you. I feel like Jeff is like the ultimate, like road trip dad, where like, he’s like, children, it’s going to be very boring for the next several hours. Do not annoy me. Do not annoy me. And then Twitter is like, are we there yet?”
Endorsed thesis played out: consolidation from $66,245 (May 2024), breakout above $100k by Dec 2024, reaching $112,000 on May 22 2025 (well above $100k).
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American HODL is very confident Bitcoin will exceed $300,000 by end of 2021.
“I'm very confident that we're going to be over 300 K by the end of the year. I mean, this train has no brakes people. It has no brakes.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000.
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American HODL asserts Bitcoin will either stay at ~$30K or go above $300K — no middle ground around $150K.
“It's either we're going to stay at 30K and we're all going to be desperately wrong or we're going to 300 plus. Like there is no in between 150. What is this mushy middle? Bitcoin doesn't do like compromises and middle grounds.”
"Either ~$30K or $300K+, no mushy middle": BTC ended 2021 in the middle (high $69,000, low $39,600), exactly the outcome he ruled out.
Open (5)
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On the record predicting Bitcoin will make a new all-time high (one or several) in 2026, but that the highs will be 'kind of underwhelming' — e.g. an all-time high to ~$140K.
“I think I don't have a problem going our record and saying, I think we will see an all-time high this year. Or several all-time highs, but I'm also kind of of the opinion that they're going to be kind of underwhelming. So, you know, an all-time high to one 40.”
2026 new-ATH-to-$140k window (2026-12-31) still open; 2026 high only $97,964 (Jan 14), far below $140k, but year not over.
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The bull run extends roughly four years, from 2025 to 2028, taking Bitcoin beyond $1 million per coin.
“My prediction is going to be, I think that the bull run is going to go on for four years. I’m just going to go out there. I haven’t heard other people say this. […] I think we’re going from here to 2028. I think it takes us beyond a million dollars. I think it’s on the back of this.com style treasury, Bitcoin treasury company bubble.”
Not reached yet (high $126,296 since 2025-07-23); 2028-12-31 horizon not passed as of 2026-07-06.
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Unbothered by the ~$80k price because Bitcoin is headed much higher over the next 10-20 years.
“And like, I don’t care that the price is 80, 000 because I know where this is headed over the next 10, 15, 20 years. And so, yeah, this is a big deal.”
10-20 year horizon not elapsed; made at $84,062 (Mar 2025), BTC $63,599 on 2026-07-06.
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The four-year cycle ('three greens, one red') is immutable — implying a red (down) year in 2026 rather than Joe's no-bust new era.
“I would love to be of the same opinion as you, Joe, but I’m just not, I think three greens, one red is an immutable law of the universe where your cycle is real.”
2026 down-year call: deadline 2026-12-31 not passed; tracking bearish (2026 open ~$87.5k to $63,599) but the year has not closed.
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Bitcoin buyers won't get a dramatically cheaper price than the current ~$62k before the next move — deploy dry powder now and DCA.
“So basically just, if you got, if you got dry powder, now’s probably the time, or, you know, sometime between here and there, probably not going to get a crazy deal. You might, but like just DCA in and chill.”
From ~$62k at recording BTC only dipped as low as ~$54k (early Aug 2024) before running to $100k by December — no 'crazy deal' ever appeared — resolves true.