American HODL
Resolved (6)
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The real story of this period is 'the shattering of the four year cycle' — whether business-cycle or halving-cycle, 'we need to cast that into the trash bin of history'; adds 'this really doesn't feel like a bull market to me in any meaningful sense.'
“The real story is the shattering of the four year cycle, whether it's business cycle related or having cycle that thing, we need to cast that into the trash bin of history. ... This really doesn't feel like a bull market to me in any meaningful sense.”
"Doesn't feel like a bull market" sentiment was borne out as BTC fell from $108,362 to $58,000 (~-46%), but "four-year cycle shattered" is a thesis framing not cleanly resolvable.
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American HODL believes a Bitcoin bull market will last all throughout 2025.
“I think like we're at the start of a bull market that's going to last all throughout 2025.”
Bull market through 2025: BTC made a new ATH of $126,296 in 2025 and held above entry ($100,151) for much of the year (low by deadline $74,421).
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American HODL expects heavy selling resistance in the $150K-$225K range before a parabolic move in Q4 2025.
“there's going to be a lot of selling in the like, let's say between 150 to 225 range in there. And so that'll be a hard range to get through. But once we break through it, we're going to break through it with force.”
$150K-$225K selling zone before a Q4-2025 parabolic break never reached — BTC topped at $126,296 and the Q4-2025 window elapsed without touching the band.
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American HODL predicts Bitcoin will go parabolic in Q4 2025 (September-December), reaching shocking prices.
“I think the back half of the year, probably, I don't know, September, October, November, December. So basically a year from now is going to be just parabolic, hyperbolic in nature. I mean, we're going to see some really crazy and shocking Bitcoin prices.”
No parabolic/hyperbolic Q4-2025 blow-off: high by 2025-12-31 was $126,296 (~+26% from $100,151), then BTC crashed to $58,000.
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American HODL is very confident Bitcoin will exceed $300,000 by end of 2021.
“I'm very confident that we're going to be over 300 K by the end of the year. I mean, this train has no brakes people. It has no brakes.”
BTC's high was only $69,000 through the 2021-12-31 horizon; never reached $300,000.
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American HODL asserts Bitcoin will either stay at ~$30K or go above $300K — no middle ground around $150K.
“It's either we're going to stay at 30K and we're all going to be desperately wrong or we're going to 300 plus. Like there is no in between 150. What is this mushy middle? Bitcoin doesn't do like compromises and middle grounds.”
"Either ~$30K or $300K+, no mushy middle": BTC ended 2021 in the middle (high $69,000, low $39,600), exactly the outcome he ruled out.
Open (1)
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On the record predicting Bitcoin will make a new all-time high (one or several) in 2026, but that the highs will be 'kind of underwhelming' — e.g. an all-time high to ~$140K.
“I think I don't have a problem going our record and saying, I think we will see an all-time high this year. Or several all-time highs, but I'm also kind of of the opinion that they're going to be kind of underwhelming. So, you know, an all-time high to one 40.”
2026 new-ATH-to-~$140K call: window open to 2026-12-31; high so far only $97,964, still below prior ATH ~$126,296.