Alex Thorn
Resolved (2)
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Strong case that the February 5th capitulation candle to ~$60k flat is the cycle bottom; could drift a bit lower but $60k likely marks the low this time.
“But I think there's a pretty strong case that that is the bottom. One, the February 5th was an absolute carnage capitulation day... let's say we fast forward a year from now and it turns out that February 5th, like candle to 60K flat, turns out to have been the bottom.”
BTC dipped to $57,718 in [2026-02-27..2026-07-01] — a minor break (within 3.8%) of the $60,000 floor.
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Alex Thorn says the picture looks pretty good for Bitcoin price over the next six to nine months, driven by ETF approval catalyst, the April halving, and potentially softening rates.
“I think the picture looks pretty good for Bitcoin price over the next, you know, six to nine months for sure. Heading into an election.”
Bullish 6-9 month call: BTC rallied from $37,325 to $73,836 by the 2024-08-10 deadline (~+98%).
Open (1)
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Strong conviction that Bitcoin will be higher in some small number of years (long-term bullish), while explicitly declining to predict a year-end price.
“But I do believe with strong conviction that Bitcoin will be higher in some small number of years.”
Long-term 'higher in some small number of years' call made Feb 2026 at $65,860; only ~4 months elapsed (current $58,161), so the multi-year window is still open.